Pulse Asia: Reelectionists have inside track in 2013 senatorial race

At least for now, reelectionist senators are likely to have the inside track if the May 2013 senatorial elections were held in November, according to a survey by pollster Pulse Asia.

 

Pulse Asia said that of 15 individuals who have a statistical chance of winning, 11 are either former of incumbent members of the Senate.

 

"Filipinos are naming a mean of nine and a median of 11 senatorial candidates (out of 12) for the coming midterm elections; about one in two Filipinos (47 percent) already has a complete slate for the May 2013 elections," it noted.

 

Those in the list are:

 

 

Pulse Asia said Trillanes, Zubiri, Angara, Madrigal and Gordon may find themselves in 6th to 12th places "but their lowest statistical rankings – 14th to 20th places – would put them out of the winners’ circle." So far, only Legarda had announced her intention to seek reelection in 2013. 

 

Public interest

 

Pulse Asia said that while there are still 18 months to go before the next senatorial elections, public interest in the electoral exercise is already apparent with Filipinos naming a mean of 9 and a median of 11 of their preferred senatorial candidates out of a maximum of 12 for May 2013.

 

"Across geographic areas and socio-demographic groupings, mean figures range from 7 in the oldest age group and among Ilocanos to 11 among Warays while median figures vary from 9 among residents of rural Luzon, those aged 65 years old and above, those with at best an elementary education, college graduates, Aglipayans, Ilocanos, Kapampangans and Bicolanos to 12 among Visayans and particularly rural Visayans, Mindanaoans, those aged 18-34 years old, those with some high school education and high school graduates, members of Iglesia ni Cristo, those with other religious affiliations, Cebuanos, Warays and those from other ethnolinguistic groupings," it said.

 

Overall, it said 47 percent of Filipinos are already naming 12 of their favored candidates for the May 2013 elections.

 

In contrast, less than one in 10 Filipinos (5.2 percent) does not have or refuses to name any preferred candidate for the May 2013 senatorial elections.

 

The survey was conducted from November 10 to 23, using face-to-face interviews with a sample of 1,200 representative adults 18 years old and above.

 

It has a ± 3% error margin at the 95% confidence level.  Subnational estimates for each of the geographic areas covered in the survey (i.e., Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao) have a ± 6% error margin, also at 95% confidence level.

 

At the time the survey was made, the following developments dominated the headlines:

(1) the Supreme Court's issuance of a temporary restraining order (TRO) on the watch list order against former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and former First Gentleman Jose Miguel T. Arroyo;

(2) acting on orders of Department of Justice Secretary Leila de Lima, the immigration officials' preventing the former First Couple from leaving the country despite the SC TRO;

(3) the arrest of former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo on 18 November 2011 on charges of electoral fraud in the May 2007 elections;

(4) the murder of a son of former Senator Ramon Revilla, Sr. and the alleged involvement of family members in the murder plot;

(5) the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit attended by President Benigno S. Aquino III;

(6) the visit to the Philippines by U.S. State Secretary Hillary Clinton and South Korean President Lee Myung-Bak;

(7) the Bureau of Internal Revenue’s (BIR) continued campaign against tax evaders;

(8) the commemoration of the second anniversary of the Maguindanao massacre;

(9) the issuance of a hold departure order against retired Maj. Gen. Jacinto Ligot and his wife following the filing of tax evasion charges against the couple;

(10) government financial assistance given to several rebel groups;

(11) the Supreme Court decision mandating the distribution of the lands of Hacienda Luisita to about 6,000 farmer beneficiaries;

(12) the passage of the national budget by the Senate

(13) depreciation of the Philippine peso and increase in diesel prices and power rates.

 

Other developments during this period include: