Ateneo prof's 60-30-10 poll results pattern gets Comelec's attention

(Updated 8:50 p.m.) Although he had dismissed it as mere “trending,” Commission on Elections (Comelec) chairman Sixto Brillantes Jr. said they would look into the supposed 60-30-10 pattern of election results that was bared by a math professor at the Ateneo de Manila University.

“Pinapaaral ko sa aming mga tao kung totoo ‘yan, although, initially parang may ganun naging pattern,” Brillantes said in an interview on GMA News’ “Unang Hirit” Tuesday.

The “interesting pattern” was bared by Ateneo de Manila University math professor Lex Muga in a post on his Facebook account.

According to him, at any given time, the National Canvass Report for the senatorial race showed that 60 percent of votes goes to the Liberal Party-led administration coalition, 30 percent to the United Nationalist Alliance (UNA), and 10 percent to independent candidates.

“May pattern. Interesting pattern. Sabi ko nga na parang 60-30-10. Ang tanong ko, bakit ‘pag kunin mo ‘yung mga actual votes sa first canvass, second canvass, kuha sila mula sa isang probinsiya lang bakit 60-30-10 pa rin? Hanggang 16. ‘Di ba manggagaling naman sa iba-ibang probinsiya ang COCs (certificates of canvass) eh? So baka ‘di dapat ganun. Dapat merong variation," Muga said in an interview aired on GMA News' "24 Oras."

Poll fraud or aggressive ground war?

Navotas Rep. Toby Tiangco, UNA spokesperson, said there seems to be something fishy with the pattern.

“It cannot be for the same percentage naman, 'di ba? For example, ako nanalo ako sa lahat ng barangay dito sa Navotas. In fact, nanalo ako sa lahat ng clustered precincts dito sa Navotas, pero hindi naman pare-pareho ang porsyento ng panalo ko sa lahat ng presinto, 'di ba? So mas lalo naman siguro mahirap gawin ‘yun sa buong Pilipinas pare-pareho percentage ng strength mo,” he said in a separate interview also aired on "24 Oras."

But for Marikina Rep. Miro Quimbo, spokesman of the administration coalition, the pattern
"is a result of a great message campaign led by the President himself and an aggressive ground war pursued by local parties allied with the President."

"It is not because of some ridiculous theory anchored on electoral fraud,” he added.

In a separate interview at the Comelec office in Manila, Brillantes said the pattern is being checked by information technology (IT) personnel.

"Pinache-check namin. Tinitingnan namin kung ano ang basis at ginagawa pa rin. Hindi kami magko-conclude. Wala tayong iko-conclude dun. Okay lang. Sabi nila pattern. I don’t know if it’s pattern. Antayin ko muna mga IT," he said.

Trend

Brillantes dismissed this as a “trend,” saying there is nothing unusual to it.

“Ang eleksyon sa Pilipinas talaga namang ganun. Usually, may trending na at ganun nangyayari as we move on to the results… If the trend is created, I think the trend will follow through ‘til the end,” he said.

When TV host and UP economics professor Winnie Monsod asked why the pattern seemed to be apparent even in the provinces, the poll chief explained: “When you say trending, start ‘yan sa baba. When you say trending sa taas, ganun din kasi ang pinanggalingan sa baba. Hindi naman magiging 60 percent consistent ‘yan. Average ‘yan ng national level.”

“It could appear na pwedeng lumabas and 60-30-10 [pattern] pero di ko alam what conclusion can we make [from that],” he added.

Interestingly, from the first to the 16th update of the National Canvass Report, the votes for the senatorial position were firmly in the boundaries of the 60-30-10 pattern favoring to the administration coalition over UNA and independent bets.  

More posts [here and here] from different people with their own formulation, which also led to the same pattern, spread on the internet.

As of this posting, GMA News Online was trying to get further explanation from Mr. Muga.

Random manual audit report

In the same television report, Monsod asked Brillantes about the result of the random manual audit (RMA), which was a safety feature to check if the votes transmitted by the Precinct Count Optical Scan (PCOS) machines match with the actual votes.

Some 234 areas were chosen to manually count the votes, which will be crosschecked with the machine-generated results. The RMA result is crucial in checking the accuracy of the PCOS machine.

According to Brillantes, the poll body has finished the manual canvass in RMA-designated areas.

“Nandito na at inaantay na namin,” he said. “Ina-analyze lang ng aming team ['yung] 234 congressional districts, kino-collate na.” — Rouchelle Dinglasan/KBK, GMA News