VP Binay leads in latest Pulse Asia survey on 2016 presidential bets

After months of trailing in the presidential surveys, Vice President Jejomar Binay has regained his lead in a poll on the preferred candidate for the highest elected post in the land.

A survey conducted by Pulse Asia from December 4 to 11, 2015, showed Binay getting the nod of 33 percent of the 1,800 respondents who were registered voters aged 18 and above from different parts of the country.

Pulse Asia said in second place were Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte with 23 percent and Senator Grace Poe with 21 percent.

Closely behind them was former Interior Secretary Mar Roxas  with 17 percent, followed by Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago with 4 percent.

In a phone interview with GMA News Online, Pulse Asia Research Director Ana Maria Tabunda said Poe and Roxas can be considered as in a tie.

“Considering the ± 2 percent error margin at the 95 percent confidence level, Poe and Roxas can be considered as tie pero hindi pwedeng sabihing tied din si Roxas sa second place kay Duterte dahil malayo na ang numero,” Tabunda noted.

With 21 percent, Poe’s preference ranges from 19 to 23 percent while that of Roxas' ranges from 15 to 19. “Nagmi-meet 'yung rating nila sa 19 percent kaya pwedeng tie sila,” Tabunda said.

Error margin

The respondents were asked: “Sa mga taong nasa listahang ito, sino ang inyong iboboto bilang Presidente ng Pilipinas kung ang eleksion ng 2016 ay gaganapin ngayon at sila ay mga kandidato? (one answer only)”

The names on the list were taken from the certificates of canvass submitted to the Commission on Elections last October 12 to 16, 2015.

The other candidates on the list were Victor Cadag who got 0.1 percent while Leo Cadion, Rizalito David, Justino Padiernos, Camilo Sabio, Roy Señeres, Augusto Syjuco Jr., and Juanita Trocenio all got 0 percent.

Pulse Asia said the survey had a ± 2% error margin at the 95 percent confidence level. Subnational estimates for the geographic areas covered in the survey had the  following error margins at 95 percent confidence level: ± 6% for Metro Manila, ±3% for the rest of Luzon, and ±5% for each of Visayas and Mindanao.

It also said that only 1 percent of Filipino registered voters were either not inclined to support any of the presidential candidates included in the survey or still do not know whom they will vote for as president in May 2016. Less than 1 percent, meanwhile, refused to identify their preferred presidential bet.

As expected, Duterte was the lead candidate in Mindanao with 43 percent, while in Metro Manila, Binay got the top spot (30 percent), followed by Duterte (27 percent) and Poe (21 percent).

In the rest of Luzon, Binay (34 percent) and Poe (29 percent) were the leading presidential candidates.

Binay also got the edge in the Visayas with 34 percent while Roxas received 27 percent. 

Meanwhile on the vice presidential race, Sen. Francis Escudero remained the top choice with 29  percent, followed by Sen. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. with 23 percent.

Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano followed with 18 percent and Camarines Sur Rep. Leni Robredo 14 percent.

“Cayetano and Robredo were also tied, because Cayetano’s preference ranges from 16 to 20 percent while those of Robredo’s were 12 to 16,” said Tabunda.

Binay’s running mate, Sen. Gringo Honasan, got 9 percent followed by Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV with 4 percent.

Other candidates included on the list were Albert Alba, 0.3 percent; Vicente Camilon Jr., 0.2 percent; Daniel Aldea, 0.1 percent; Ted Malangen, .04 percent; and Jesus Zosino Paredes, 0 percent.

Pulse Asia said 1 percent of Filipino registered voters do not support any of the vice-
presidential candidates on their list while another 1 percent admitted not knowing whom they will elect for the post next year, and 0.1% refused to name the vice-presidential bet they will support in May 2016.

It added that Metro Manilans and those in the rest of Luzon are most supportive of the vice-presidential bids of Escudero (30 percent and 33 percent, respectively) and Marcos (28 percent and 26 percent, respectively).

Escudero was also the top choice of those in the Visayas with 27 percent, Robredo with  21 percent, and Cayetano, 18 percent.

On the other hand, Cayetano, running mate of Duterte, led the candidates in Mindanao with 27 percent, followed by Escudero, 21 percent, and Marcos 19 percent. —KG/VS/RSJ, GMA News