Expert sees ‘uneasy tranquility’ in ASEAN handling of sea disputes

A security expert raised concern over the state of calmness in the South China Sea among disputing parties, saying that such tranquility could be touchy as the issue was not deeply tackled by the Association of Southeast Asian Nation member-states and China.

"Ngayon ay merong tinatawag na moment of relative calm sa South China Sea, pero ang ikinatatakot nga ng karamihan, lalo na ako bilang isang security analyst, baka ito ay 'calm before the storm' kasi 'yung fundamental issues ng usapin  ay hindi naman talaga natatalakay nang lubusan," professor Rommel Banlaoi, chairman of the Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence, and Terrorism Research, said in an interview on Super Radyo dzBB on Saturday.

Conflict avoidance 

Banlaoi pointed out that the Philippines has chosen the  "conflict avoidance" approach rather than the "conflict resolution" path. 

"Ngayon ang approach ng ASEAN na sinimulan ng Pilipinas ay 'yung "conflict avoidance."

While conflict avoidance is important in rebuilding trust and confidence to have a "conducive environment" for negotiations, the rule of law is ultimately needed, he said.

This is "... in order to finally conclude a Code of Conduct in South China Sea that will really uphold the rule of law in settling territorial disputes." 

But while avoiding conflict could be the option for now for ASEAN and China, some parties —such as the US, Japan, and Australia — view that Beijing is intentionally delaying the progress of crafting a legally binding code while proceeding with its construction and reclamation activities in the disputed waters.

Batongbacal of the UP Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea agreed with Banlaoi, saying that China's expansion in the disputed Paracel Islands — a group of islands also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan — showed that it might also not honor its word to the Philippines over the latter's claims in the West Philippine Sea. 

Batongbacal said the country's decision to stay quite regarding its territorial claim in the South China Sea has emboldened China to expand its military bases on the disputed islands and may have resulted in the Philippines losing Vietnam's support over its own territorial claims.

President Rodrigo Duterte has decided to temporarily put aside the international court of arbitration's  ruling favoring the Philippines' claims in the West Philippine against China. —LBG, GMA News