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President Rodrigo Duterte enters his second year in office with much of his political capital intact. If anything, he may be in a stronger position of power than he ever. The latest survey shows that his approval rating has increased after the Marawi crisis and his subsequent declaration of Martial Law was decisively supported by the country’s highest court.
Supreme Court Justices Mariano C. del Castillo, Presbitero Velasco, Estela Perlas-Bernabe, Bienvenido Reyes, Lucas Bersamin, Diosdado Peralta, Noel Tijam, Jose Mendoza, Teresita Leonardo-de Castro, Francis Jardeleza, and Samuel Martires fully affirmed the constitutionality of Dutetre’s proclamation across the whole island of Mindanao.
Chief Justice Maria Lourdes Sereno and Associate Justice Benjamin Caguioa only partially upheld it, ruling that the proclamation should only cover the epicenter of terrorism crisis, namely provinces of Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, and Sulu. It was even more geographically specific for Associate Justice Antonio Carpio, who held that the proclamation should have been limited to Marawi City alone. Associate Justice Marvic Leonen was the lone dissenter.
There are five key implications of Dutetre’s latest legal victory, which came months after another similarly favorable ruling over former Filipino president Ferdinand Marcos’ burial in the Cemetery of National Heroes.
1. No need for panic. This was essentially the message of the Supreme Court in its 82-page ruling (July 5). The vote was decisively in favor of the president, affirming his prerogative to use his executive powers against national security threats, in fact well beyond the island of Mindanao. It affirmed that the judiciary and legislative branches should give the “President the same leeway by not wading into the realm that is reserved exclusively by the Constitution to the Executive Department." Thus, the judiciary has affirmed executive supremacy in matters of national security.
2. Crucial meeting with the Defense establishment. The decisive nature of the Supreme Court decision was most likely due to a highly reassuring meeting with the implementers of the Martial Law. After all, the devil is in the details, and the detail is in implementation.
Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana, martial law administrator, and Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief of staff General Eduardo Año, martial law implementer, met the Supreme Court justices in mid-June, a highly fruitful meeting, whereby they managed to convince the highest court that the Martial Law, in practice, would not only enhance the country’s national security, but also remain humane, constitutional and respectful of basic constitutional rights of the citizens.
As Secretary Lorenzana told me days earlier, “we have given assurances publicly…. that in the implementation of Martial Law, we will safeguard the basic constitutional rights of the people of Mindanao.” He also told me that they would make sure they would “not repeat the Marcos [era] Martial Law abuse”.
3. Firm legislative support. Beyond the merits of their legal verdict, the Supreme Court’s decision can’t be fully divorced from the broader intra-state dynamics, specifically the fact that not only the executive branch firmly stood by its decision, with Duterte even threatening to ignore any unfavorable Supreme Court ruling, but also the legislative branch strongly reaffirmed the Martial Law declaration.
No less than Speaker of the House Pantaleon Alvarez made it clear that the judiciary can’t impose its view on the two other branches of the government, which were largely in sync on the issue. In a fledgling democracy such as ours, it is difficult to imagine anything short of a constitutional crisis had the Supreme Court decided otherwise.
4. Popular support. Prior to the Marawi crisis, surveys largely showed that majority (close to 7 out of 10) Filipinos thumbed down any Martial Law declaration, namely on a nationwide basis. Public mood, however, dramatically changed after Islamic State-affiliated groups, led by the Maute family, laid a month-long siege on the country’s largest Muslim-majority city. Though I am still waiting for a scientific survey, it is safe to say that a larger proportion, if not majority, of the population now support the ongoing Martial Law in Mindanao, largely out of concern over a terror contagion.
5. Extension is almost certain. In its ruling, the Supreme Court made it clear that, "The Constitution…granted the President wide leeway and flexibility in determining the territorial scope of martial law,” thus “[l]imiting the proclamation and/or suspension to the place where there is actual rebellion would not only defeat the purpose of declaring martial law, it will make the exercise thereof ineffective and useless." Duterte, who enjoys super-majority support in the legislature, has vowed to extend the Martial Law proclamation beyond its 60-days-limit if necessary to protect the people against terrorism. By and large, his allies in the Congress seem to be on same page.
Prof. Richard Heydarian is GMA resident analyst and author of, among others, “How Capitalism Failed the Arab World” (Zed, London).
