5 facts about the North Korean crisis

“This is the new abnormal” is how an advisor to South Korean President Moon Jae-in put it to me during a recent visit to Seoul. He was, of course, referring to the reclusive regime’s successive and highly provocative ballistic missile tests followed by what Pyongyang claims to be their second thermonuclear (H-bomb) test.

There is still considerable debate among experts on whether North Korea has indeed developed a thermonuclear weapons capability, which can potentially turn 1000 times more powerful than the atomic bomb used during the Second World War, or simply tested boosted atomic weapons, which were still several times more destructive than those dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima. To put things into perspective, an atomic bomb could partially destroy Makati City. A fully developed H-bomb weapon, however, can destroy entire Metro Manila and surrounding regions within seconds.

When it comes to the North Korean crisis, there are five things to keep in mind:

1. America within North Korean crosshair - There is an emerging consensus among experts that North Korea is well on its way to become a full-fledged nuclear power. This means not only developing and possessing advanced nuclear weapons, but also having the delivery capacity to hit strategic targets across vast distances. Within a year or two, the Kim Jong-un regime may credibly place major American cities in North America within its crosshair;

2. The Trump Card - The US President Donald Trump’s constant taunting of North Korea – often on his twitter account -- is built on two specific factors. First, the tough-talking American president doesn’t want to end up as the leader, on whose watch a rogue state was able to credibly threaten the whole nation with nuclear annihilation. So, in a way, he is desperate to stave off this outcome. Second, which is related to the first reason, Trump has put forward the option of preemptive strikes to not only threaten North Korea, but, more importantly, pressure China to change its policy on the Korean Peninsula. Securing China’s support, which is responsible for the bulk of investments in and financial transactions between North Korea and outside world, is indispensable to effectively pressuring Pyongyang into submission;

3. Between a rock and a hard place – In recent years, China has been increasingly irked by its North Korean ally, which has defied even Beijing’s advice against provocative actions. The problem, however, is that Beijing fears a massive humanitarian crisis on its northeastern borders as well as expansion of American zone of influence to its current border with North Korea if Pyongyang were to collapse or a regime change were to take place. In short, China is more fearful of the collapse of the Kim regime rather than its current erratic and threatening behavior;

4. The real victim – The ultimate sacrificial lamb in an event of escalation is South Korea, particularly Seoul, which lies just several miles away from North Korea’s battery of chemical-shelled artillery battery. The whole metropolis, where the bulk of South Korea’s economy and population resides, could face massive destruction if there were to be war or North Korea retaliates in response to American preemptive strikes on its nuclear and military sites. 

This is precisely why South Korea’s President Moon declared in mid-August, "Military action on the Korean peninsula can only be decided by South Korea and no one else can decide to take military action without the consent of South Korea." They are increasingly feeling powerless in shaping the their own fate, which is anchored by how the North Korea issue is and will be approached by other major powers.

The Moon administration actually seeks a nuclear weapons-free zone in the Korean Peninsula by 2020 through a combination of dialogue, enhanced deterrence, and economic incentives to North Korea. Historically, as American expert Bruce Cumings perceptively notes, “direct talks” is “the only method that has ever worked”. From 1994 to 2002, North Korea stopped its nuclear proliferation and slowed down its missile development program because of effective diplomacy by the liberal predecessors of Moon, particularly Nobel Laureate Kim Dae-jung, who launched the “Sunshine Policy” of engagement.

5. Contingency plans – more than 60 thousand Filipinos reside in South Korea, and the number can reach close to half a million if one considers the Overseas Filipino Workers’ population in the Northeast Asian region. Clearly, no one wants war at this point, even North Korea. What we are seeing is a game of chicken and efforts by opposing sides to strengthen their bargaining position until the other party blinks. North Korea fears invasion by its far more powerful rivals, so it is developing its capabilities nonstop, while its neighbors don’t trust the regime, thus they respond accordingly.

It is a dangerous cycle, which can spin out of control and into outright conflict if there is a major mistake by only one key party. While there is no need for panic, it is important for the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) to draft necessary contingency measures, particularly for Filipinos in Seoul area, not too dissimilar from what it conducted during the Arab uprisings, when we had to rescue and ship out thousands of stranded OFWs. Let’s hope for peace, but also prepare for war.

Prof. Richard Heydarian is GMA's Resident Political Analyst, author of “Asia’s New Battlefield: US, China and the Struggle for Western Pacific”, and a contributor to Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington D.C.