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End of El Niño at last, but La Niña may be looming


The state weather bureau announced on Wednesday the end of the El Niño phenomenon and, with it, the coming of La Niña in the coming months.

According to PAGASA's latest El Niño Advisory, the month of July was welcomed with neutral conditions in the central and equatorial Pacific, as both oceanic and atmospheric indicators have returned to neutral values.

As of July, the sea surface temperatures are now in neutral condition.

However, PAGASA said that there is an ever-increasing possibility of La Niña developing this year.

“Posibleng magstart siya, more than 50 percent possibility na magdevelop ang La Niña in the July-August-September season. Between July-August-September season and  August-September-October season, this is when La Niña starts to develop typically. Hindi pa po full-blown La Niña,” Weather Specialist Analiza Solis said in a press conference.

A La Niña event is characterized by cooler than normal sea surface temperatures in the Tropical Pacific. This, in turn, causes more raincloud-carrying winds to come into the Philippines from the east.

Solis explained that, despite the end of the El Niño, some parts of the country are still reeling from its effects.

In PAGASA’s rainfall assessment for the month of June, the western section of mainland Luzon—particularly the Bicol Region—as well as other parts of the country including Southern Panay, Sarangani, and Davao Oriental received below to below normal rainfall.

Solis said that, based on recent observations, the country may feel the effects of La Niña during the last four months of the current year.

“Starting September, ‘yung po ‘yung nakikita nating near-normal to above normal ang ulan niya, na posibleng ‘yun po ang potential impact ng La Niña,” she said.

Solis said that, because of the El Niño, only 9 to 15 tropical cyclones are expected within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) from July to December this year—significantly fewer than the average of 20 cyclones per year.

So far this year, only two tropical cyclones came within the PAR: Tropical Depression Ambo and Typhoon Butchoy. — RSJ/TJD, GMA News

Tags: pagasa, elnino, lanina
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