Midway in the NBA: Cavs tumble as LBJ heats up

Now that all NBA teams have played more than the 41-game minimum to mark the midway point of the season, it's time to review how badly we may have botched our forecast made over a couple of months ago. I know I was utterly wrong about the Cleveland Cavs, the orphaned team my heart refuses to de-fond. I thought that even without that grand escapee LeBron, the Cavaliers had enough manpower to make it to the playoffs, albeit not as serious contenders. But the tragic irony is that after starting out relatively fit, even upsetting the Celtics as the season unfolded, there came LBJ's much-hyped return to the Q — the Cavs begun their horrific tumble after being shown up by the souped-up Heat. As if losing James weren't enough, thence gaining an awful tweet from him about karma being "a bitch" as they were sliding down, the Cavs just had to give up on their most energetic player, Andy Varejao. That's for the season. And more injuries have stacked up since, so that D-leaguers have had to suit up. Antawn Jamison has revived his game, but the Cavs have suffered 16 straight losses to become the NBA's worst at a godawful 8-35. In painful contrast, that expected comeuppance in the hands of the Heat appears to have propelled the latter to an inspired run, climaxing in a momentary climb to the top of the East past the Celtics. Until injuries, too, took its toll on the three-pronged offense, resulting in a four-game slide. Still, the Heat trail the Celtics by only 2.5 games, with rock-steady Boston at a conference-best 33-10, on pace for a 60-win season. Surprising Chicago, even without Joakim Noah and injury-prone Carlos Boozer, has made much of Derrick Rose's all-around game to nip at the heels of Miami at 30-14. And a game behind Chicago is resurgent Orlando after a blockbuster trade, at 29-15. None among these top four teams in the East did better than 7-3 in their respective last ten games, with Miami at 6-4 after that four-game skid. Atlanta's at 29-16, just half a game behind Orlando, after posting the best win-loss stat of 8-2 for its last ten. In November I wrote: "The safe bets are still the Heat, Celtics, Magic, Hawks, and Bulls — in that order. We should expect these Top 5 to slug it out in the second season." Well, I'm still pretty solid on that score. Then I said New Jersey and Milwaukee "might summon the wherewithal to crash into the Magic Eight after 82 games, maybe to pull down Indiana, New York and/or Cleveland." Currently rounding out the Top 8 are NY at 22-21 despite a recent 3-7 card, including the last six as losses, then Philadelphia at 18-25, and Charlotte at 17-25, underscoring the East's weakness, with the Nos. 7 & 8 teams going well below .500 at midpoint. Milwaukee and Indiana are both at 16-25, while Detroit hangs around at 16-28. Despite a stunning shellacking of league-leading San Antonio, Washington is at 13-29, inclusive of 0-20 on the road. Toronto (13-31), New Jersey (12-32) and the woebegone Cleveland are the doormat teams. My November forecast may appear a little off on Nos. 6 to 8 for playoff contention, but not by much. Those last three slots are still open season for at most six teams, other than the sure also-rans that are Washington, Toronto, NJ and Cleveland. In the West, the Top 8 teams are well above a .500 winning mark, with the consistent San Antonio Spurs at an impressive 37-7, or 3.5 games ahead of their Eastern counterparts and 5.5 games up on the West's current second-best Lakers, the defending champs who are at 32-13. Both have gone 8-2 in their last ten. Now, my fave Oklahoma is at 28-15, three games behind the Lakers, as the 7th best team in the league despite going only 6-4 of late. At this point, I don't really think Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have the full team support that it takes, especially in defense and off the glass, to stay in serious contention beyond the Western semis. But hey, I like rooting for a dark horse, especially when youth is on its side. And KD just had his first game-winning, buzzer-beating trey. Hey, hey! Dallas is also at 28-15 for s share of 3rd-4th, after an injury to Dirk Nowitski and a slide to 3-7 in its last ten. Only a game behind at 29-16 is New Orleans, now streaking with eight straight wins. At sixth is inconsistent Utah at 27-17, then Denver at 25-18, and Portland at 25-20. Barely knocking on the playoff door are Memphis at 21-23, Phoenix at 20-22, Houston at 20-25, and Golden State at 19-24 despite its high-octane offense. A pity that the other Los Angeles is only at 17-26 despite noticeably picking up, with a 7-3 win-loss card of late. Blake Griffin is something else, and Eric Gordon can put up the numbers, so I'm hoping the team continues jelling enough for us to be entertained in the playoffs. Out of it all are Minnesota at 10-33 and Sacramento at 9-32. In November, I had the Lakers, Hornets, Blazers, Spurs, Nuggets, Mavs, Jazz and Thunder as my Top 8, not necessarily in that order. Well, almost right on the button there, exact placements go hang. I hadn't expected Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, whom I both like, to get back into vintage championship form. Now I believe that barring any injuries, the Spurs stand mightily in the way of any Lakers repeat bid. At this point, my Western semis cast has the Spurs, Lakers, Thunder and Hornets, in that order. And for the East, it should be the Heat and Celtics battling for homecourt advantage, with the Magic and Bulls at 3rd and 4th. A dream match-up for the Finals would still be a Lakers-Heat clash, while a Spurs-Celtics affair may be seen as too dry of fireworks. Such is the curse for teams that put a premium on efficiency rather than showtime. We'll see. It's still a long way till June. Soon everyone takes a midpoint breather for the All-Star Games, where we know the Clippers' Blake will veritably be the white tyger, tyger — airborne and burning bright. – GMANews.TV