Peso to rise above P42 to $1 by yearend — analysts

Analysts from Banco de Oro and Metrobank forecast the peso appreciating beyond P42 against the US dollar before the year is out.   “We see the long term trend towards appreciation, we estimate that the peso-dollar exchange to fall below P42 to P41.75 by year-end,” Metrobank research head Marc Bautista told GMA News Online on Friday.   “The strengthening of peso will continue as the country’s dollar liquidity flows very well. The country has more than enough dollar supply,” he noted.   He said the country’s balance of payments and gross international reserves are on the right track. In February, the foreign reserves reached a record-level of $77.7 billion.   In a separate phone interview, Jonathan Ravelas, Banco de Oro Unibank chief market strategist, said the exchange rate would reach P41.70 in the year-end.   “The money is coming here,” he said.   Short term: Peso depreciation   In the short term the analysts said the peso will depreciate first.   “For next week, [we should] continue to expect the currency to range in the near-term between the P42.70 to P43.10 levels,” Ravelas said. “The dollar is improving due to US’ improving economy.”   Friday, the exchange rate stood at  $1 = P43.061.   “The depreciating value of Peso at this time is normal until April as the OFWs remittances slacken also during this time. The general weakness of peso is not on negative news, it is just that the US economy is getting better thus, a stronger currency,” according to Bautista. However, Bautista noted that the peso will gain its strength in May and June -- thanks to the overseas Filipino workers’ remittances.   “By May and June, OFW remittances will reach its peak that will affect the forex making the peso appreciate. We estimate that the peso will appreciate below P42.50 during these months,” he claimed.   Bautista added that during the holiday season in December, as OFWs remit monies, the peso appreciates. — ELR, GMA News