If President Benigno Aquino III Administration's projections came true, the Philippines in 2016 would be sprinting past countries like Argentina and India as far as gross domestic product growth goes. 

 

Budget and Management Secretary Florencio Abad quoted macroeconomic assumptions approved by the interagency Development Budget Coordination Committee, or DBCC, that the Philippine economy will have a growth rate of six to seven percent next year.

 

This will further accelerate to 6.5 to 7.5 percent in 2014, seven to eight percent in 2015 and reach 7.5 to 8.5 percent by the end of Aquino’s term in 2016. 

 

According to the United States Central Intelligence Agency Factbook, Argentina in 2011 had a growth rate of eight percent, and India reached 7.8 percent. 

 

These economic growth projections are anchored on several caveats.

Firstly, the country’s external trade has to fully recover in the next four years. Exports are projected to grow by 12 percent in 2013 and 2014, 14 percent by 2015 and 2016. The 2012 export growth projection is at 10 percent. 

 

Also, the latest macroeconomic assumptions project imports to grow to 14 percent next year. This, too, will accelerate to 15 percent in 2014, and 16 percent by 2015 and 2016. 

 

In turn, these export/import growth forecasts are anchored on expectations that inflation will remain benign at three to five percent from this year to 2014, and will decelerate to two to four percent in 2015 and 2016. 

 

According to the DBCC, growth will be fueled by the government’s infrastructure spending, dollar remittances from overseas Filipinos and the steady growth of manufacturing, services and tourism sectors. 

 

However, for the rest of the year, Abad said the government would retain its official growth forecast range of 5 percent to 6 percent despite the higher-than-expected performance of the economy in the first quarter of the year.

 

The Philippine economy, as measured by GDP grew by 6.4 percent in the first quarter of the year, surpassing analysts’ expectations and beating year-ago figures of 4.9 percent. 

 

“The numbers are good. The first quarter growth is good but we will remain conservative,” Abad said. — DVM,GMA News