Numerophilia: Is the Petronovela over?

Four games into the Commissioner's Cup and the Petron Blaze Boosters are looking like the powerhouse they were thought to be on paper. They've retained the majority of a roster that is stuffed with potential game-changing locals, and added Renaldo Balkman as their import, a legit NBA veteran who has played 221 games for the New York Knicks and the Denver Nuggets. Suffice to say, they do not lack for talent. But what they seem to have in department, they lacked in on-court chemistry. Hence the birth of Petronovela, a play on telenovela. They could never find a way to finish games or play well together despite their obvious talent and were beset with personnel drama to boot. This conference however, Petron come out of the gates hot. After losing their first game against Globalport by a slim two points (after leading by five after three quarters), it looked like we were in for more of the same. Instead, Petron responded with two blowout victories and three wins. After three weeks of PBA action, Petron is the best offensive team, scoring 102.59 points/100-possessions while allowing just 91.88 points/100-possessions, a DRTG that ranks third in the league. Add that up and what you get is the best Efficiency Differential in the league at 10.71 points/100-possession. What changed?

Shooting three’s Petron was one of the worst three-point shooting teams last conference. They ranked dead last in that category, converting only 28.9 percent from downtown. Without that shooting, Petron had a hard time generating easy shots. They were still the fourth best offense last conference, but they were barely above league average at the time. This time, their offense sits at the top of the list. In four games, the Boosters are hitting 32.4 percent of their threes, good for second in the conference. The key in all of this is Jay Washington. Washington has made 5-of-11 three-point attempts, good for 45.5 percent from downtown. That improvement has allowed coach Olsen Racela to play him alongside June Mar Fajardo and Renaldo Balkman without compromising their spacing. Of course, Marcio Lassiter’s hot streak is also a big reason for the drastic improvement of Petron’s floor spacing. He’s been on fire this conference, hitting 6-of-9 attempts from downtown in three games. Even if we consider both of these numbers to be flukes, Petron’s shooting can still improve. Ronald Tubid - the cagey player Petron traded for - shot 31 percent from downtown last conference with Barako Bull Energy Cola, where he was the team’s best scoring option. If he can somehow find his stroke this season, Petron will be more dangerous than they already are. The Balkmanimal The biggest change that you’ll see from Petron is their defense. They were one of the worst defensive teams last conference, allowing 100 points/100-possessions (fourth worst). In the Commissioner's Cup, they are allowing just 91.88 points/100-possessions. How to explain the change? Petron now forces opponents to take a lot of attempts early in the shotclock and outrunning you on the other end. For the conference, Petron has the fastest pace among all 10 teams, using almost 93.3 possessions per game. Because of the depth of their roster, they can continuously run and gun without it affecting their performance. It also helps that they have Renaldo Balkman, who was best known as a defensive player in the NBA. His combination of length, agility and timing has allowed the Boosters to become one of the stingiest defenses in the league, despite the fast nature of their attack. Balkman is currently averaging 1.6 steals and 3.4 blocks per game - both numbers ranking among the league’s best. He’s also shown his versatility as a ball handler and as a scorer on the break. This conference, we’ve seen Petron opponents running the break, with what seems to be a certain basket for their team, only to be stymied by Balkman. After collecting the blocked shot, intercepted pass or rebound, Balkman would then streak down the court and either score for himself or find an open teammate. Also, for the conference, Petron ranks as the most efficient fast break teams in the league, scoring 13.75 fast break points on just 9.5 attempts. His work in the high post should also not be forgotten. Petron often stations Balkman at the top of the key. Once there, Balkman can torture an entire defense with the plethora of options available to him. He can attack off the dribble, he can find shooters on the wings, he can look for Fajardo sealing his man down low or opportune cutters who’ve caught their man off guard. Petron’s improvement can be largely attributed to Balkman’s work on defense and offense. Rebounding Despite having the smallest import in the league, the Boosters have found a way to lead the league in rebounding differential. They currently have the best defensive rebounding rate in the league, snagging 71 percent of their opponent’s misses while being the third best offensive rebounding team, hauling in 35.1 percent of their misses. Legendary women’s US NCAA head coach Pat Summitt said that “offense sells tickets, defense wins games, rebounding wins championships.” This quote underscores the importance of controlling the glass. Petron isn’t really that good at pressuring shots and forcing misses, with an effective field goal percentage of just 44.1 percent (league average is at 43.4 percent). But what they do know how to do is to extend possessions and keep opponents to just one shot every time down the court. Both of which are important aspects of possession management. Most important in this attack is the work of Arwind Santos, June Mar Fajardo and Renaldo Balkman. All three players rank among the league’s elite. Just for fun, here are their numbers: Despite not having one player in the top 10 in terms of rebounding, Petron is still at the top of the heap because of their ability to rebound as a team. That’s something you never thought you could say last conference. The question now is can this continue? Most certainly. Rebounding is something that’s consistent - if you’re a good rebounder, chances are you’re always going to be a good rebounder. All three Blaze Boosters, and the other Petron players are right around their marks from last conference. So this rebounding isn’t a fluke, it’s real and it’s one strength that Petron can lean on. Petron is finally figuring things out. With the way they’re going, improving on their six wins in the 2012-13 Philippine Cup is not an unrealistic goal. I’d be wary of considering them actual contenders at this point but it’s not out of the picture. If they can continue playing the way they’ve played, hitting three-point shots, playing defense, scoring efficiently on the break and Balkman being Balkman, they’ll be a serious threat to win this conference. Whether they get there is up to them. Can we turn the page on the Petronovela? We’ll have to wait and see a bit more. - AMD, GMA News Nico Baguio holds a Masters Degree in Mathematics from the Ateneo de Manila University. He's currently a writer for SBNation's At The Hive and runs a website that focuses on using advanced statistics on the local hoops scene, Humble Bola. You can email him at contact@humblebola.com. You can also follow him on Twitter.