Numerophilia: Here's why the GlobalPort boat is sinking

The GlobalPort Batang Pier started the conference on a high note, a 2-1 record with their lone loss being an overtime defeat to Barako Bull Energy Cola, thanks to an offseason influx of talent.   After trading for Meralco point guard Sol Mercado for a package of role players (a huge win talent-wise), the Batang Pier also acquired NBA-hopeful Japeth Aguilar, a long and athletic player with untapped potential. Everything was going well for a team that lined the cellar last conference with a 1-13 record. But since that 2-1 start, GlobalPort has dropped six straight games, losing by an average of 9.33 points in that span. Now, six weeks and two imports later, the team is in shambles. They don’t have an import, they don’t have momentum and they lack confidence. What happened? GlobalPort’s team wasn’t really built to be a defensive powerhouse, and they shouldn’t be. They have enough firepower from the big guns guard trio of Sol Mercado, Willie Miller, Gary David, not to mention the relatively unknown but highly promising Japeth Aguilar, to outscore almost everybody if they wanted to. They just needed to be adequate on defense and awesome on offense and they should have been fine. Although their offense has stalled quite a bit since their hot start to the conference, dropping from 99.74 points per 100-possessions in their first three games (a number that would lead the league by a solid margin) to around 96.7 points per 100-possessions (still among the league’s elite offenses), their defense, or what seemed like a defense, got worse. In their first three games, the Batang Pier allowed 99.45 points per 100-possessions, a number that ranks among the league’s worst defenses. So it comes as a surprise that they found a way to turn their already awful defense into a more horrid one. In their past six games, they’ve allowed a whopping 106.7 points per 100-possessions. How did they manage to do this incredible feat? Looking at the Four Factors, not only are they allowing teams to shoot better from the field (Effective Field Goal % split: 42.9% in first three games vs 46.5% in last 6 games), but they’ve also allowed more rebounds (33.6% ORB% vs 34.6% ORB%), forced fewer turnovers (12.4% TOV% vs 11.1% TOV%) and surrendered more free throws (15.4% FTR vs 25.4% FTR). Yes, that’s right, Globalport got worse in all four defensive factors.   Because of the relative dearth of defensive talent on their roster, teams are able to waltz right into the (empty) heart of the defense and create openings from there. What happens after is a chain reaction of events that results in a wide-open three, a lay-up or a foul on the inside, none of which are good for any defense. No wonder Globalport’s opponents have scored far more efficiently from the three-point line (0.78 points per shot vs 0.98 points per shot) or are headed to the line more (20.7 PF/game leading to 20.7 FTA/game vs 26 PF/game leading to 28.5 FTA/game) in the past six games. Their team's inability to force turnovers via steals (as a team, they only average 3.8 steals/game, last in the league) isn’t as damaging as the amount and efficiency of fast break points they allow due to their insistence on taking a lot of long jumpers, early in the clock. By the numbers, GlobalPort allows opponents to score 1.4 points per fast break attempt (worst in the league). Import Justin Williams, a formidable interior presence, was able to cover the lack of perimeter defense for GlobalPort. With his athleticism, quick, powerful jumps and long arms, he was able to somehow make a group of offensive players look “not-so-awful” on defense (including challenge-happy Japeth Aguilar).  But when management decided to go with Walter Sharpe, a player who was basically a Japeth Aguilar clone and a lesser interior presence than Justin Williams, GlobalPort finally turned for the worst.

Defensive Factor	With Walter Sharpe (2 games)	With Justin Williams (7 games)
Effective FG%	45.9%	45.1%
Turnover percentage	9.3%	12.2%
Offensive rebounding percentage	42.2%	32.0%
Free throw rate	35.7%	18.2%

Quantifying defense (and to a certain extent, offense) is all about the gravity of the ball on the individual players and the basket and how to minimize the leverage the opposing team gets in space. This is why perimeter defense is harder than interior defense, because the ability to force the ball (and subsequently, the flow of the opponent’s entire offense) to spaces where you can get certain advantages is hard to do. Defensive concepts such as “force baseline”, “trap at the halfcourt line” and “cut off passing lanes to the middle" are widespread defensive tactics because of their ability to use certain spots as high leverage points (baselines, sidelines and halfcourt lines as added defenders, preventing movement from the most open part of the court i.e. the middle.) Unfortunately for GlobalPort, the coaching staff and the players themselves are not able do this, as evidenced by their inability to force turnovers, force missed shots or rebound missed shots they do get a stop. The good news is that they still have the time to reverse their course. Before they were called upon to carry a big portion of their previous team’s offense, Gary David and Willie Miller were very excellent perimeter defenders. Given how they're currently lined-up with a host of offensive weapons, they can actually focus more on the defensive side of things. In addition, the Batang Pier have a roster spot free for an import. That should be filled with a defensive game-changer in the mold of Robert Dozier or Denzel Bowles, someone quick, with a strong base, great timing and overall ability to communicate on defense to his teammates. As important as perimeter defenders are, the importance of a singular, unifying presence in the middle cannot be understated. There’s a reason why three of the top four defensive teams are headed by defensive stalwarts such as Robert Dozier, Renaldo Balkman (prior to his dismissal) and Denzel Bowles. We get it, GlobalPort is trying to win by offense. But you can’t win with a great offense and a horrible defense. Unless you have an offense that would rank among the best in history, you at least have to play at around league-average defense in order to compete. Right now, GlobalPort isn’t playing any. They have a lot of problems that are not easy to solve, especially midseason. But if they can find the right import (personally, I think they should have never let Justin Williams go) to anchor their entire defense around, then they have a chance. I’ve always believed that the only thing you need to get a good offense is good offensive players. You can’t say the same on defense, where it’s five guys defending the ball each second. The defensive system matters. That’s on the coach and his staff to think about (i.e. putting players into the ideal defensive system that minimizes their weaknesses) and it is up to the players to execute. So far, both groups are not doing their part. Is this ship sunk or is there a chance of patching the leak and getting back on course? Only time and more games, will tell. - AMD, GMA News Nico Baguio holds a Masters Degree in Mathematics from the Ateneo de Manila University. He's currently a writer for SBNation's At The Hive and runs a website that focuses on using advanced statistics on the local hoops scene, Humble Bola. You can email him at contact@humblebola.com. You can also follow him on Twitter.