2013 Comm. Cup Quarterfinals: #1 Alaska Aces vs #8 Air21 Express

Elimination round record:

• Alaska 11-3
• Air21 6-8

Elimination round matches:

• March 15, 2013 Air21 def. Alaska 74-68

How they got here Everyone expected Alaska to be good. But no one expected them to be this good, this fast. The Aces looked to build on their strong Philippine Cup finish, and they did just that, as they started the Commissioner’s Cup with five consecutive wins. Alaska stifled teams with suffocating defense, allowing only 79.8 points per game on 36.90 percent field goal shooting, both of which are league leading numbers. In fact, the only time Alaska looked beatable was when key players Sonny Thoss and Jvee Casio sat out a few games in the middle of the eliminations. But when the two of them returned,, the Aces once again dominated the league, stringing together four straight wins to enter the playoffs. [Infographic: #1 Alaska Aces vs #8 Air21 Express] If Alaska’s rise was sudden and unexpected, the Air21 Express continued their gradual improvement, making the quarterfinals as an eighth seed anew. Bannered by a “mamaw” import, the outside shooters of the Express have been freed up by the beastly play of Mike Dunigan inside. Air21 bucked a slow start and went on a four-game win streak midway through the elimination round, including earning a win over their quarterfinal opponent, Alaska. They then avoided a knockout game to get into the quarterfinals outright, with a big win in their final game against the loaded Petron Blaze Boosters. Import showdown Mike Dunigan and Robert Dozier are a contrast in styles. Mike Dunigan is a monster in the paint, overpowering his match-ups with his strength and athleticism. He protects the shaded lane with intimidation and ferocity as well. Dunigan gives Air21 a legitimate post threat on both sides of the ball, something they desperately needed. And as a result, Air21 has modified their game plan around him. The Express now run an inside-out offensive game with Dunigan at the post and shooters to spread the floor. On defense, Tthe guards of Air21 are now more confident to play the passing lanes and gamble on steals, knowing that they have Dunigan to back them up. Robert Dozier on the other hand is a smooth operator who uses his length and balance on both ends. He’s one of the best in the league at finishing after the foul. Dozier is Alaska’s anchor on defense. He’s strong enough to handle post players and fast enough to match-up with slashers and provide help-side defense. Unlike Dunigan, Dozier fits perfectly into the preexisting Alaska system. He’s a skilled and willing passer who’s aware of the cutters and shooters around him. Air21 will need Dunigan to totally dominate both Dozier and the rest of Alaska’s bigs for the Express to have a shot at advancing. He can’t be just good. He has to be game-changing good and force Alaska to alter their game plan. [Related: From the Stands episode 52 - previewing the quarterfinals] The X-factor The biggest wild card in the series is KG Canaleta. He’s a streaky gunner that can win games single-handedly or shoot his team out of matches. In the last three games of the elimination round, Canaleta is averaging 30.60 points with six three's made per game. He carried Air21 into the playoffs, submitting a 37-point, nine-triple performance in their overtime win against Petron. More than just pouring in the points, Canaleta has to score intelligently and effectively. He can’t settle on lofting up contested long twos, something he’s been known to do. He has to be able to take shots within the flow of the game so that he can get his rhythm and provide consistent offense all throughout the 48 minutes. For Alaska, they will have to get Jvee Casio back. The sophomore PG has been in a slump the entire conference, putting up a measly 7.80 points per game on 30.26 percent shooting. Casio is an important part of the Alaska offense because he’s their best outside shooter. When he’s hitting his shots, he opens up the floor for Baguio and Abueva to attack the basket and for Dozier to do his work in the post. The good thing for Alaska is that Casio has been able to contribute even if he’s not making buckets. He’s been focused on being the primary playmaker for the Aces, averaging 8.30 assists in his last three games. He has to continue this trend of wonderful point guard play, in case he can’t fix his broken jumper. The prediction The Aces will be ready for Air21. Luigi Trillo will look back on their elimination round loss against the Express and correct the mistakes his team made in that game. He has his team peaking at the right time; every player knows their role and are playing beautiful basketball together. For the Express to even have a puncher’s chance of upsetting the Aces, everyone will have to chip in and play their role to perfection. Mike Cortez will have to take advantage of his size and athleticism against the Alaska point guards and feed Dunigan and Canaleta in their spots. Franz Pumaren will have the unenviable task of finding the balance between unleashing Dunigan and Canaleta and getting them to play within his system. The Express will have to play an almost-perfect game to beat the Aces. Then they have to do it all over again., thanks to Alaska's twice-to-beat advantage That’s close to impossible. Alaska has the personnel to match-up to Air21 and Trillo is a brilliant coach who’s impeccable at timing his adjustments to his game plan and rotation. This will be a competitive game. But it will be just that, one game before Alaska advances to the semifinals. - AMD, GMA News