NBA semifinals preview: #1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs #5 Memphis Grizzlies

Regular season series: Grizzlies 2-1

• November 14: Grizzlies 107-97 @Thunder
• January 31: Grizzlies 89-106 @Thunder
• March 20: Thunder 89-90 @Grizzlies

What if?

This question looms heavily atop the rafters of Chesapeake Energy Arena, where the Oklahoma City Thunder prepare for a showdown against the Memphis Grizzlies in a rematch of their highly-entertaining series, which went the full seven games two years ago.

This time around however, without the league’s best scoring point guard in Russell Westbrook, MVP runner-up Kevin Durant will have to conquer the approaching Grizzlies with lesser ammunition.

Aside from scoring, size will be a crucial factor in this series. Suddenly, Kendrick Perkins, a player whom pundits believe is contrarian to the Thunder’s adoption of a small-ball system, will be instrumental for the OKC on the defensive end of the floor. Gone are the days when the Thunder coach Scott Brooks can play Serge Ibaka at the center position with Durant at power forward. Because the speed and athleticism of Westbrook will not be around in this series, the Thunder will have to revert to a more traditional line-up.

Kevin Durant’s approach will be tested by Memphis’ troika of above-average defenders. Tayshaun Prince may have slowed a half-step since the day he made a chase-down block on Reggie Miller, but his 7’2” wingspan has not shrunk. Memphis coach Lionel Hollins will have Prince as Durant’s primary cover, but expect him to also employ Tony Allen who, despite giving up more than five inches, is an elite defender, who will hound Durant from the moment the latter receives the ball 20-feet from the basket. Quincy Pondexter, the strongest built among the three, will also get his opportunities to cover OKC’s superstar.

It is imperative to note that while the Thunder is Durant’s team, the squad is far from a one-man show. The other Kevin has to step up for OKC. Kevin Martin, who struggled mightily in his first five games against Houston in the first round, broke out of his shell for 25 points in the series-clinching game six. However, Martin will be in for a world of trouble. He will not have as many easy open looks as he had against a very porous Rockets defense that was clueless on how to close out three-point shooters.

Tempers will be sure to flare up in this series. When the Thunder and Grizzlies got reacquainted last November, push came to shove between Perkins and Zach Randolph, as both players were ejected. Randolph got sent to the showers again as recently as game six against the Clippers. Both teams have enforcer mentalities and it will be natural that steam will blow off from box-out plays that devolve into pseudo-wrestling matches.

Speaking of boxing out, the Grizzlies will be all about pounding the ball into the post and getting points in the paint. Marc Gasol was unfazed by the plethora of Clippers bigs, so it wouldn’t come as a shock if he tries to abuse Nick Collison on every single opportunity that presents itself. Gasol followed through on his Defensive Player of the Year Award as he stymied one penetration after another during the first round. His job will be much easier without Westbrook, but he will only have six fouls to spare when Durant comes charging towards the hoop.

In the backcourt, Mike Conley has a decisive edge over Reggie Jackson, which is huge for the Grizzlies, because this marks the first playoff series where Conley is perceived as the superior point guard, having gone against the likes of Tony Parker and Chris Paul in the past. Conley was almost able to play Paul to a stalemate in the first round, posting dangerous numbers of 17.3 points and 8.3 assist. Therefore, Jackson ultimately serves as OKC’s wildcard. If his numbers approximate that of Conley’s production, then his time on the floor has served its purpose.

Every possession counts for the Grizzlies because they play the slowest pace in the league. The responsibility falls on Conley, Jerryd Bayless, and Keyon Dooling to protect the ball and continue their minimal turnover rate. Through six playoff games, the Grizzlies average only 9.8 miscues, best in the league.

Don’t put an asterisk on the outcome of this series. The Grizzlies will still face a steep challenge from a Thunder team that still has the resolve of a Finals contender. The Thunder now play the darkhorse role, an unfamiliar situation for a 60-win team. Expect another seven-game classic in the making.

Prediction: Grizzlies in 7


- AMD, GMA News