Numerophilia: Alternate picks for Best Import and Best Player of the 2013 Comm. Cup

I decided to tackle this discussion particularly because it has so much subjectivity built into the task. Too many times, those who vote for these kinds of awards are coaxed into casting ballots for players who are hyped by their team winning, by a storyline or by the quantity of their statistics (instead of the quality AND the quantity of their statistics). ?

In this case, it's Robert Dozier of the Alaska Aces, who won Best Import, and LA Tenorio of Barangay Ginebra San Miguel as Best Player of the 2013 Commissioner's Cup. Now, even removing the fact that each player was able to carry their team to the Finals, a good argument can be made for both of them, for their respective awards.

Not a great argument, mind you, but logical enough that you'll probably convince me at some point.

They are however, not my votes for BPC and BIC. This is not a hate article. This is just an article that will try to look at voting for the "best" player from an alternate tack.

You also have to know though that I consider these awards as “regular conference awards” so their performance in the playoffs should not affect their candidacy, whatsoever.

Best Import of the Conference

My vote for Best Import of the Conference is Eric Dawson of the Meralco Bolts. Why? For several reasons.

A team that lacked talent (after trading away marquee player Sol Mercado to Globalport) was able to get to a 7-7 record largely because they had someone who could somehow replace Sol Mercado’s high usage, good efficiency possessions. Meralco needed a scorer that could shoulder a larger role on offense (the same way Sol did) and carry them into the playoffs. Dawson did that and more.
 
Eric Dawson scored at a rate of 102.7 points per 100-possessions. That’s 6.5 points better than the league average. Now this may pale in comparison to other, more efficient imports like Rob Dozier (+18 points above league average), Vernon Macklin and Bruno Sundov (+10 points above league average). But those three players, and most players, to be honest, did not carry as big as a role as Dawson.

For his part, Dawson scored at a rate of 6.5 points above league average on absurd usage rates – 35.8 percent. For perspective, since there are five players on the court, the normal or average usage rate should be around 20% (100% divided by 5). That means Dawson carried the load of almost two players while he was on the court and succeeded magnificently.

We’re not even talking about Dawson’s overall production (as compared to his offensive production) yet. Dawson’s player efficiency rating (PER) stood at a mighty 30.7. You want perspective on this? The Miami Heat's LeBron James’ PER in the 2011/12 season was 30.7, while his 2012/13 season netted him a PER of 31.6.

Of course that’s adjusted for competition (i.e. a player with a PER of 30 in the PBA is not as good as a player with a PER of 30 in the NBA) and James did his feat in a far longer season (82 games versus 14 games), but Eric Dawson was the LeBron James of the PBA in terms of PER. He was head-and-shoulders above everyone in terms of per-minute production. In fact, the guy that comes closest (Rob Dozier) in terms of overall production in extended minutes is four points below Dawson’s PER.

The fact that Dawson produced as such (ORTG of 102.7, USG% of 35.8 percent, PER of 30.67) for an entire conference (14 games) while playing a huge chunk of the games (He played in 84.9 percent of Meralco’s minutes at the position) and I think Dawson’s selection as Best Import of the Conference should have been a lock. The only thing that people probably remember about him though is how he struggled to score in the final two games of the conference. But this is a recognition of the work a player’s done in the regular conference, since using the playoffs as a filter gives an unfair advantage to some players.

Because of this, Dawson is my pick.



Best Player of the Conference

This award is a bit more controversial because the media seems to think that Calvin Abueva and LA Tenorio should be the front-runners for this award. I don’t. As I said, this is a regular conference award so the performance of their teams in the playoffs should not, in any way, affect the voting for this award.

So who is my vote for BPC?

My vote for BPC is none other than Talk 'N Text Tropang Texter Jimmy Alapag.

Jimmy Alapag led a deep team, yes. And yes, Talk ‘N Text did finish with a record that doesn’t totally reflect the supposed talent level on the roster.

What we do know is that among the locals, he has the highest offensive rating, scoring almost 118 points per 100-possession. Although he uses just 17.5% of the possessions while he’s on the court, he’s terribly efficient when he does use them. Despite being among the league’s shortest players, Alapag still finds a way to score efficiently because he picks his spots. His dead eye three-point shooting, 40 percent on a little under six three-point attempts per game, allows him to wreak havoc and create easy scoring opportunities for his teammates.

Alapag's assist percentage of 31.1 percent also ranks third behind Chris Ross and Sol Mercado. Unlike the two in front of him, he doesn’t turn the ball over a lot (13.4 percent TOV%).

In fact, Alapag has the second highest PER among locals, bested only by his teammate, Jayson Castro. He didn’t even need to play as much, compared to LA Tenorio (Alapag played just 58.8 percent of the available minutes while Tenorio played in 79.2 percent of them).

Why not Calvin Abueva? By most measures, Abueva is a worse offensive player. Was he a big reason for Alaska’s rise? Yes, he was. His defensive tenacity (and occasional flopping) was a key perimeter defense contribution that Alaska would miss had it not been there. But was his perimeter defense the big reason why Alaska became a better defending team? I don’t think so.

Plus, Abueva played in just 26.2 minutes per game, barely 55 percent of the team’s available minutes. Abueva is a candidate here (and in real life) only because he plays with Jvee Casio (my personal Alaska MVP vote), Dozier and Cyrus Bagiuo. Without one of those three, I doubt the Alaska would reach the pinnacle of its journey with Abueva among its trio.


I've presented the individual factors behind my choice of the two players as my picks in this article, but if you'd like to see a further breakdown of all the factors involved, as well as who else had a chance to win under the system I designed, that post can be read on my blog, HumbleBola. - AMD, GMA News



Nico Baguio holds a Masters Degree in Mathematics from the Ateneo de Manila University. He's currently a writer for SBNation's At The Hive and runs a website that focuses on using advanced statistics on the local hoops scene, HumbleBola. You can email him at contact@humblebola.com. and also follow him on Twitter.