FilOil: Red Warriors and Growling Tigers face off in semis battle

The UE Red Warriors and the UST Growling Tigers FilOil semifinals match-up is a must-watch for UAAP aficionados because this is a potential Final Four match-up in their mother league. Both teams have chips on their shoulder, as UE is a team hungry for a return to contention after missing three straight Final Four appearances, while UST showed that it is a step or two away from claiming the vaunted UAAP crown.

With the eliminations rounds of the FilOil Flying V Hanes Premier Cup over, both teams are expected to come at each other in full speed, especially with a Finals berth at stake for the winner.

These teams have played each other in the eliminations round, where the Warriors outlasted the Tigers behind a perfect shooting game from neophyte Ralf Olivarez (17 points, 7-of-7 shooting) and gunslinger Jay-Ar Sumido, 85-68 (16 points, 6-of-6 shooting). The UE offense killed the UST defense with their drive-and-dish game, which opened up a slew of shooters, as the team ended up scattering 18 assists, their second-best passing performance of the season (24 versus San Sebastian).

The Warriors also managed to keep playing at their own tempo by crashing the boards, outmuscling the Tigers’ big men en route to a 47-33 rebounding edge.

This Growling Tigers team however is a team that cares not for standings, taking down  Group A second seed Arellano University Chiefs last Monday, 83-73. Although the win should be taken with a grain of salt considering top Chief James Forrester sat out (torn meniscus), the Tigers showed signs of returning to form, drawing arguably the best performance from Karim Abdul thus far in the tournament (18 points, 14 rebounds).

A UAAP MVP candidate last season, Abdul had been playing uninspired basketball for most of the tourney, prior to that showing. But now, with all their players coming close to 100 percent, consider UST as explosive as they were last year.

The UST Growling Tigers will win because...

This group still has much of its UAAP championship core intact. Never mind the stats, never mind the standings; these Growling Tigers are no stranger to playing under the pressure, and can will themselves to a win. The scoring duo of Aljon Mariano (19.9 points per game) and Jeric Teng (16.8 points per game) found some help in Karim Abdul, Kevin Ferrer (14 points, six rebounds), and Ed Daquioag (11 points, 10 rebounds, four assists) in the previous game, and the UE defense will have a hard time containing their myriad options on offense, especially considering this five might very well be coach Jarencio's starting unit.

As Jarencio mentioned in the previous game, Abdul is the catalyst here, going as far as saying that Abdul’s play determines the team’s character and direction. The Tigers will want a repeat performance or something better than last game’s output, as the 6’6” Cameroonian showed clearly that he can singlehandedly anchor his team’s interior offense when willing. That said, expect Abdul to have a tough time scoring against counterpart Charles Mammie, though the former has a crafty offensive game that will be lethal when matched-up against a non-Mammie defender.

The Tigers also dismissed its lack of production at the point guard position, as the team only needs someone capable of bringing the ball past the halfcourt line and drilling the open jumper when necessary. Daquioag and sharpshooter Clark Bautista (39 percent from deep) have emerged as the clear candidates to play point, and although passing isn’t a strength, anything they can bring to the table on offense is gravy. Bautista however might continue to sit out due to a back injury.

Mariano only scored five points in the previous game, but UE knows better than to ignore his scoring prowess. Look for the former San Beda High Red Cub to bounce back and take advantage of UE’s wiry wing defenders, as guarding Mariano takes a two-man effort. He and Teng have to take their outside shooting up a notch though if Mammie neutralizes Abdul inside.


The UE Red Warriors will win because...

There is no telling who erupts offensively for UE, as several players have been stepping  up over their summer run. Roi Sumang and Charles Mammie will no doubt be stuffing the stat sheet, but Olivarez, Sumido, Chris Javier (18 points versus CSJL), Adrian Santos (10 points, twice), JM Noble (10 points versus EAC), and Lordy Casajeros (14 points versus SWU) have been solid offensively as well.

UE also enters the game ranked first in the rebounding department (51.2 rebounds per game), also topping the league on the offensive glass, hauling in 17.9 per game. The rebounding efforts help the Red Warriors play at the breakneck speed that Sumang prefers, as the speedy point guard gets most of his 16.3 scoring average on fast break baskets off outlet passes from Mammie, Santos, and Javier. Look for Sumang to take advantage of his speed and quickness, second to none in the league.

The Mammie-Abdul match-up, as mentioned earlier, is key. If Mammie (14.6 points per game, 11.6 rebounds per game) manages to contain Abdul and at the same time punish them offensively, the UST defense will leave some holes defensively that UE’s shooters can readily exploit. Mammie is a meat-and-potatoes player that scores buckets on stabs and hooks, and will take advantage of smaller and thinner defenders such as Paulo Pe and Robert Hainga.

As the Tigers’ defense double up on Mammie, Santos and Javier will likely find open looks in a hi-low scheme when paired with Mammie. Look for them to take advantage of the mismatches on height, especially if Mariano is plugged in at power forward.

The X-Factor:

For UST: Jeric Teng will have to shoot lights out in this game to provide Abdul and Mariano the space they need to operate inside. If Bautista misses the game, Teng will all the more have to provide the firepower from beyond the arc, although he has to shoot better than his 19 percent clip from downtown so far in the tournament. He has been, at times, volatile, scoring more than 25 points at least twice (31 versus DLSU, 27 versus EAC) in the tournament.

For SBC: Jay-Ar Sumido will receive kick-outs from both Sumang and Mammie, and ought to have his shooting arm ready. As the Warriors’ number one three-point shooter (41 percent), any additional firepower from Sumido will bust UST’s zone, giving Sumang and Mammie more leeway to convert on scoring opportunities.

And the winner is...

UST, but only by a hair. The Tigers’ game always hinges on a big game from their center, and a sputtering Abdul will force UST to scramble for points from their wing players. However, their championship experience is a huge plus, as this squad is used to playing in pressure situations. If however UE displays that late-game instinct they showed in their quarterfinal game against Adamson, and proves it was no fluke, then these “new” Red Warriors steal the win and legitimize themselves as UAAP contenders in the process. - AMD, GMA News