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SWS: 17 party-list groups poised to get 23 seats

May 11, 2007 12:39pm
Going into the final days of the campaign period, the anti-administration Bayan Muna and Akbayan organizations remain poised to secure a maximum of three seats in the House of Representatives while 15 other party-list groups are on track to gain at least one seat.

The Social Weather Stations (SWS) reported this in its May 2-4 survey report, which showed that 17 party-list groups will likely land 23 House seats.

Bayan Muna gained 8.4% of the suvey respondents' votes, while Akbayan got 8.2%. Both are at the forefront of protest marchest against the Arroyo administration and have been labeled as harboring links with communist rebels.

The two groups, however, lost about two points compared to their standing in the previous SWS survey.

"Despite their declining number of votes compared to the SWS April 2007 survey, Bayan Muna, now with 8.4% from 10.4% in April, and Akbayan, now with 8.2% from 9.8% in April, are still poised to retain their current three seats, which is already the maximum allowed," SWS said.

Following the two party-list groups are Butil (4.9%), Buhay (4.2%), Gabriela (3.9%), A Teacher (3.6%), Ahon (3.5%), Cibac (3.4%), Aangat Tayo or AT (3.0%), Agap (2.7%), Anakpawis (2.7%), Ahonbayan (2.6%), Coop-Natco (2.3%), Abakada (2.2%), Kabataan (2.1%), Amin (2.1%), and Kakusa (2.0%).

Likely to retain their current seats are Gabriela, Cibac, Coop-Natco and Amin, while the rest may win a House seat each.

"Allowing for sampling error, with a survey outcome of 3.0% or more it is statistically safe to say that a party has truly reached the threshold of 2.0%. On the other hand, a survey outcome of below 1.0% makes it statistically very unlikely that the threshold has in truth been reached," SWS said.

Gaining four percent of the possible 45 million registered votes would give a party-list group two seats, while six percent will allow the maximum three seats.

Listed as "just below the threshold but within statistical reach" were Abanse! Pinay (1.9%), Cocofed (1.8%), Abono (1.7%), Asahan Mo (1.5%), Alagad (1.5%), VFP (1.5%), 1-Utak (1.5%), Suara (1.5%), Aba-Ako (1.4%), Almana (1.3%), Apec (1.3%), Anak (1.2%), Apoi (1.1%), Batas (1.0%) and Assalam (1.0%)

Popular across all geographic areas are Akbayan, Gabriela, and Ahon, which all got at least 2% threshold across all sites.

Bayan Muna and Kabataan, meanwhile, met the two-percent rule across all areas except in Mindanao with 1.7% and zero percent respectively.

SWS also found that the top five party-list groups gained two percent of the survey respondents' votes in all socio-economic classes.

A total of 1,200 registered voters were taken as survey respondents in Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. - GMANews.TV