Philippine economy to surpass pre-pandemic growth levels in 2022 —NEDA’s Chua

The Philippine economy will grow faster than its pre-COVID-19 pandemic level this year after the country saw a faster-than-expected growth in the last quarter of 2021, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick Chua said Thursday.

The Philippine Statistics Authority reported that the economy as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) —the total value of goods and services produced in a specific period— grew 7.7% in the last three months of last year, faster than the downwardly revised 6.9% in the third quarter of 2021.

This is also a reversal from the 8.3% contraction recorded in the fourth quarter of 2020. The latest GDP print is also faster than expected, both by the government and the private sector.

The fourth quarter figures brought the full-year 2021 growth at 5.6%, a recovery from the record-low -9.6% in 2020, but slower than the 6.1% recorded in 2019 prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The full-year growth rate surpassed the government’s upwardly revised target for 2021 of 5% to 5.5%.

“We are very close to pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2021. If you look at the nominal levels, we are just a few hundred billions short so we are going to fully surpass it [pre-pandemic levels] in 2022,” said Chua, who heads the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA).

For his part, PSA chief and National Statistician Claire Dennis Mapa said the country’s GDP, in peso terms, stood at P19.387 trillion compared to pre-pandemic or full-year 2019 level at P19.518 trillion.

“If we compare 2021 versus 2019 current prices, we are down by about P131 billion or estimated 0.7%,” Mapa said.

With this, Chua said that “by the end of 2021 we are almost hitting pre-pandemic level… so we will surely hit it in the first quarter [of 2022].”

The NEDA chief, however, said the main risk for this year are any unknown variants of the coronavirus.

“Other than that, there are no surprises. Other risks that we are aware of and addressing are inflation (oil and food),” Chua said.

The country’s chief economist said that the social protection programs such as subsidies to public utility vehicle drivers and operators as well as providing more support to farmers will mitigate the risk of oil and food inflation.

Nonetheless, Chua said the Philippines’ 2021 growth is higher than other regional economics, except Singapore.

“Singapore 7.5%, Vietnam 2.6%, the rest of ASEAN countries estimate is from 1% to 4%,” he said.

“That gives us a boost. We can accelerate growth with the pending policy reforms like to PSA (Public Service Act), RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership), innovation law implementation and livestock bill, BBB (Build, Build, Build), among others,” he added.—AOL, GMA News