Five years ago, encouraged by the then ongoing peace talks with both the Muslims and the communist rebels, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo made this bold declaration:
“Peace will have come to Mindanao and all insurgency areas," proclaims her Medium-Term Philippine Development Plan for 2004 to 2010. Obviously, with barely a year left before her term ends, this has not happened. In 2004, peace talks with the National Democratic Front were suspended. Five years after, talks have yet to resume. NDF chief political consultant Jose Maria Sison, Communist Party of the Philippines founding chair, was arrested in 2007 in The Hague and was released after a month. In 2008, negotiations with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front were stalled after a public outcry against the memorandum of agreement on ancestral domain, which was supposed to be signed by the peace panels in August. MILF attacks, staged in protest of the aborted signing, killed at least 30 people. Meanwhile, from 2001 to 2008, the armed conflict has claimed the lives of a total of 747 people and displaced close to 1.9 million people. Arroyo, of course, has now appeared to have acknowledged the fact that peace has yet to reign in certain parts of the country, particularly Mindanao. “There is now a good prospect for peace talks with both the Communist Party of the Philippines and the MILF, with whom we are now on ceasefire," she said in her last State of the Nation Address on July 27.
Short-lived peace One of Arroyo's first executive acts after assuming the presidency in 2001 is to reverse her predecessor Joseph Estrada's "all-out war" stance against the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. On February 28, 2001, Arroyo issued Executive Order 3 which defined her government’s policy for comprehensive peace efforts and reiterated former President Fidel Ramos’s “Six Paths to Peace." EO 3 created the Government Peace Negotiating Panels for the different rebel groups, strengthened the mandate of the Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process and integrated special projects under the Office of the President. But peace proved to be short-lived. Relations with the NDF soured after Arroyo welcomed the United States government’s inclusion of the Communist Party of the Philippines and its armed wing, the New People’s Army, in its list of “foreign terrorist organizations" in August 2002. The US also imposed financial sanctions on CPP/NPA and its founder, Jose Ma. Sison. Formal talks were suspended in 2004. The following year, Arroyo suspended the Joint Agreement on Safety and Immunity Guarantees (Jasig) that gave safety passes for the people involved in the formal peace talks. In February 2006, the National Police charged with rebellion more than 50 people including Sison and four militant party-list representatives for alleged involvement in the attempt to overthrow the Arroyo government. Armed Forces chief of staff Gen. Hermogenes Esperon vowed to crush communist insurgency by 2010. In August 2007, Sison was arrested by Dutch police and ordered detained by a judge in The Hague on charges of giving orders, from the Netherlands, to murder former communist associates Romulo Kintanar and Arturo Tabara. He was released the following month. Meanwhile, talks with the MILF have its share of landmarks and losses. The first few years of the Arroyo administration saw the signing of key agreements and hostilities between government groups and MILF forces that led to the cancellation of talks. The talks reached a breakthrough in 2005—“the first time that both sides entered into substantive discussions outside of the cessation of hostilities," a joint statement of the peace panels said. This culminated in the July 27, 2008 initialing of the memorandum of agreement on ancestral domain, which will pave the way for the expansion of the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao as a Bangsamoro homeland with broad economic and political powers. The formal signing of the MOA-AD, scheduled on August 5, 2009, was canceled after the Supreme Court issued a temporary restraining order. The High Court subsequently declared it unconstitutional. The government has since abandoned the deal.
Trail of blood The scrapping of the MOA sparked attacks from “recalcitrant" MILF members in towns in North Cotabato, Lanao del Norte and Sarangani, killing at least 30 people. From 2000 to 2009, a total of 248 armed conflicts were recorded by the Department of Social Welfare and Development and the National Disaster Coordinating Council.
Nationwide data on frequency of armed conflicts | YEAR | Frequency of Armed Conflict |
| 2000 | 50 |
| 2001 | 23 |
| 2002 | 22 |
| 2003 | 21 |
| 2004 | 12 |
| 2005 | 23 |
| 2006 | 29 |
| 2007 | 25 |
| 2008 | 30 |
| Jan–Mar 2009* | 13 |
| Total (2001-09) | 198 |
| Total | 248 |
Sources: DSWD and NDCC
* from NDCC Quarterly Updates |
The most number of armed conflicts in the past nine years happened during the last year of President Joseph Estrada in 2000, with 50 incidents. Since Arroyo assumed office in 2001, a total of 198 armed conflicts were recorded including the 13 in the first quarter of this year. 2008, the year the MOA-AD was scrapped, saw the most number of recorded armed conflicts in the Arroyo administration. All 30 incidents recorded that year occurred happened in Mindanao after the MOA-AD was junked. The armed conflict claimed the lives of a total of 747 people from 2001 to 2008, proof that Arroyo’s supposed “all-out peace" policy still left a trail of blood. During the same period, a total of 649 government troops, civilians and rebels were injured while 21 others were missing.
Nationwide data on casualties due to armed conflict | YEAR | DEAD | INJURED | MISSING |
| 2001 | 71 | 91 | 13 |
| 2002 | 74 | 127 | - |
| 2003 | 284 | 227 | - |
| 2004 | 20 | 21 | 3 |
| 2005 | 35 | 34 | - |
| 2006 | 30 | 5 | 5 |
| 2007 | 70 | 21 | - |
| 2008 | 163 | 123 | - |
| TOTAL | 747 | 649 | 21 |
| Source: DSWD |
The most number of casualties—284 deaths and 227 injuries—took place in 2003, when authorities were pursuing members of the notorious Mindanao-based Pentagon kidnap-for-ransom gang. 2008 closely follows with 163 deaths and 123 injuries, reflecting the fighting that ensued after the failure of the MOA-AD.
“Bakwits" More substantial than the figures of the casualties are the number of “internally displaced persons (IDPs)," people forced to flee their homes to avoid the armed conflict but who, unlike refugees, remain within their country’s borders. Almost a million IDPs, also called evacuees or “bakwits," were displaced during the last full year of Estrada in 2000, when his “all-out war" policy against the MILF was in full swing. The 985,412 IDPs in 2000 is the biggest number bakwits in nine years. (see table) The IDPs in 2008 totaled 145,427 families or 697,969 persons, the highest since Arroyo’s term started in 2001. All these people were displaced by the conflicts in some parts of Mindanao after the failure of the MOA-AD.
Nationwide data on IDPs served | YEAR | FAMILIES | PERSONS |
| 2000 | | 985,412 |
| 2001 | 39,929 | 202,842 |
| 2002 | 4,346 | 23,650 |
| 2003 | 91,151 | 452,258 |
| 2004 | 9,110 | 44,532 |
| 2005 | 32,107 | 169,803 |
| 2006 | 17,661 | 87,893 |
| 2007 | 34,871 | 184,730 |
| 2008 | 145,427 | 697,969 |
| Source: DSWD and NDCC |
Based on the 2008 figures, the Geneva-based Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre ranked the Philippines No. 1 in the world in terms of number of displaced persons. The IDMC is an international body monitoring conflict-induced internal displacement. The IDMC keeps its own database sourced from various government agencies and media reports. From 2001 to 2008, nearly all or 9 in 10 IDPs came from Mindanao. Besides the MOA-AD-related armed conflict, military operations against the Pentagon gang in 2003 resulted in high numbers of IDPs.
Regional breakdown of IDPs served Sources: DSWD and NDCC | REGION | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 |
| CAR | - | - | 101 | - |
| III | - | - | - | 588 |
| IV-A | - | 1,664 | - | - |
| IV-B | - | - | - | - |
| V | - | - | - | 114 |
| VI | - | - | - | - |
| VII | - | - | - | 528 |
| VIII | - | - | - | - |
| IX | 65,818 | 7,770 | 10,244 | - |
| X | 246 | - | 49,682 | - |
| XI | 18,206 | 7 | 1,686 | 123 |
| XII | 46,663 | 8,138 | 145,498 | 10,121 |
| ARMM | 71,909 | 6,071 | 245,047 | 33,058 |
| CARAGA | - | - | - | - |
| Sub Total | 202,842 | 21,986 | 452,157 | 43,302 |
| Total | 202,842 | 23,650 | 452,258 | 44,532 |
| REGION | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 |
| CAR | - | - | - | - |
| III | - | 875 | 139,561 | - |
| IV-A | 15,599 | 605 | - | - |
| IV-B | 617 | 1,252 | - | - |
| V | 901 | - | 4,285 | - |
| VI | - | 2,497 | 3,871 | - |
| VII | -1,057 | - | - | - |
| VIII | 3,994 | 1,087 | 505 | - |
| IX | - | - | - | - |
| X | - | 766 | 271 | 6,000 |
| XI | 250 | 3,436 | - | - |
| XII | 7,591 | 5,729 | 33,950 | 116,580 |
| ARMM | 135,896 | 71,079 | - | 185,595 |
| CARAGA | 3,898 | 567 | 2,287 | - |
| Sub Total | 147,635 | 81,577 | 36,508 | 308,175 |
| Total | 169,803 | 87,893 | 45,169 | 308,175 |
| REGION | TOTAL |
| CAR | 101 |
| III | 141,024 |
| IV-A | 17,868 |
| IV-B | 1,869 |
| V | 5,300 |
| VI | 6,368 |
| VII | 1,585 |
| VIII | 5,586 |
| IX | 83,832 |
| X | 56,965 |
| XI | 23,708 |
| XII | 374,270 |
| ARMM | 748,665 |
| CARAGA | 6,752 |
| Sub Total | 1,294,182 |
| Total | 1,473,883 |
Cumulative total affected population Aug. 10, 2008-Jul 7, 2009 Source: NDCC Situational report No. 86 dated July 14, 2009 | REGION | Brgys | Severly | Moderately | Mildly |
| Families | Persons | Families | Persons | Families | Persons |
| X | 155 | 75 | 375 | 36,958 | 160,688 | - | - |
| XII | 105 | 1,073 | 5,365 | 30,901 | 154,482 | 5 | 25 |
| ARMM | 175 | 2,653 | 13,265 | 83,931 | 412,181 | 1,988 | 10,173 |
| Total | 435 | 3,801 | 19,005 | 151,790 | 727,351 | 1,993 | 10,198 |
| REGION | Brgys | TOTAL |
| Families | Persons |
| X | 155 | 37,033 | 161,063 |
| XII | 105 | 31,979 | 159,872 |
| ARMM | 175 | 88,572 | 435,619 |
| Total | 435 | 157,584 | 756,554 |
Cost of conflict Government estimates placed the total cost of assistance extended to IDPs at almost half a billion pesos since 2001. The government spent the most for assistance during major military operations and political conflicts. Of the P494.47 million, almost 43 percent or P211.97 million was spent in 2008 owing to MILF attacks related to the MOA-AD. It is the biggest so far under the Arroyo administration. Funds came from the DSWD, local government units and nongovernment organizations.
Nationwide data on the cost of assistance due to armed conflict | YEAR | Total | DSWD | LGUs | NGOs & OTHER GOs |
| 2001 | 121,235,618.13 | 106,047,965.63 | 1,860,998.50 | 13,326,654.00 |
| 2002 | 1,367,092.30 | 951,180.30 | 373,062.00 | 42,850.00 |
| 2003 | 106,085,427.58 | 85,325,210.13 | 11,718,096.70 | 9,042,120.75 |
| 2004 | 838,120.00 | 320,720.00 | 487,400.00 | 30,000.00 |
| 2005 | 13,452,589.99 | 6,359,503.99 | 3,414,132.00 | 3,678,954.00 |
| 2006 | 9,129,880.26 | 3,733,674.46 | 1,045,308.45 | 4,350,897.35 |
| 2007 | 30,384,812.60 | 7,429,764.73 | 2,670,031.10 | 20,285,016.77 |
| 2008 | 211,974,699.21 | 87,898,978.81 | 13,891,058.80 | 110,184,661.60 |
| Total | 494,468,240.07 | 298,066,998.05 | 35,460,087.55 | 160,941,154.47 |
| Source: DSWD |
The government spent the second-biggest amount for assistance in 2001: P121.24 million to rehabilitate those affected by Estrada’s all-out war. A total of P106.09 million was spent in 2003 after the military offensive in the MILF’s Buliok Complex in Pikit, North Cotabato. Meanwhile, in just one year, damage to infrastructure and agriculture was pegged at P251.59 million.
Cost of damages due to armed conflicts in infrastructure and agriculture Aug. 10, 2008-Jul 7, 2009 | Infrastructure | 99,024,756.08 |
| Agriculture | 152,566,236.00 |
| Total | 251,590,992.08 |
| Source: NDCC Situational report No. 86 dated July 14, 2009 |
From 2001 to 2008, houses damaged by armed conflict totaled 11,122, most of them totally destroyed.
Nationwide data on damaged houses due to armed conflict | YEAR | DAMAGED HOUSES |
| Totally | Partially | Total |
| 2001 | 272 | 73 | 345 |
| 2002 | 82 | - | 82 |
| 2003 | 5,889 | 1,515 | 7,404 |
| 2004 | 8 | 30 | 38 |
| 2005 | 57 | 4 | 61 |
| 2006 | 1,328 | - | 1,328 |
| 2007 | 14 | - | 14 |
| 2008 | 1,584 | 266 | 1,850 |
| Total | 9,234 | 1,888 | 11,122 |
| Source: DSWD and NDCC |
The Buliok military offensive ordered by Arroyo in 2003 destroyed the most number of houses: a total of 7,404 were totally and partially destroyed. A total of 1,850 houses were razed during attacks of MILF renegade forces in several Mindanao towns, the second highest.
Cost of peace Maintaining peace appears to be costlier than the damages of war. Ramos created the Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process in 1993 through Executive Order 125 to be the lead agency that will manage and supervise the comprehensive peace process with all rebel groups. From 2003 to 2008, OPAPP was allocated a budget totaling almost P1.4 billion. Funding for the OPAPP came from government subsidy and grants and donations.
Budget Allocation for OPAPP | YEAR | Subsidy from Gov’t | Grants & Donation | Total Amount |
| 2001 | - | - | - |
| 2002 | - | - | - |
| 2003 | 167,074,726.68 | 4,082,500.00 | 171,157,226.68 |
| 2004 | 191,624,843.71 | N/A | 191,624,843.71 |
| 2005 | 220,831,915.48 | 2,825,068.90 | 223,656,984.38 |
| 2006 | 162,364,072.41 | 2,647,782.99 | 165,011,855.40 |
| 2007 | 199,271,282.21 | 1,761,844.92 | 201,033,127.13 |
| 2008 | 418,812,662.63 | 7,506,375.55 | 426,319,038.18 |
| Total | 1,359,979,503.12 | 18,823,572.36 | 1,378,803,075.48 |
| Source: Commission on Audit |
It received the highest budget in 2008—P426,319,038.18—more than double the allocation of the previous year.
Prospect Peace talks with the NDF, CPP’s political wing, and the MILF are expected to resume hopefully within the year. On July 8, Malacañang and the NDF announced that preparations are being made for the continuation of formal talks in Oslo in August 2009, ending the five-year hiatus. Both negotiating panels have agreed on the implementation of the Jasig to enable persons to participate in the preparatory meeting and formal talks. On July 23, Arroyo declared the suspension of offensive military operations against the MILF. The government is awaiting word from the Malaysian government, the third-party facilitator, on when the peace talks will resume. But Amina Rasul, lead convenor of the Philippine Council for Islam and Democracy, believes that Arroyo needs a miracle to meet her MTPDP goal of attaining peace in all conflict-ridden areas by 2010. “A miracle is needed for that to happen. Her unpopularity will be the principal deterrent in getting the various publics to support proposed peace agreements," Rasul said in an email sent to GMA News Research. She is of course referring to the MOA-AD, calling it a potato that the government helped cook only to drop when it became hot. “The worsening trust in the Arroyo government has made it difficult to gather the necessary support for the initiated MOA-AD," Rasul said. Rasul said the Arroyo administration mishandled the peace negotiations with the MILF, evident from alleged inconsistencies in approach from support of the peace process to a military one. A mess, she said, that has taken its toll on the people of Muslim Mindanao, which has the worst indicators for poverty and underdevelopment since Arroyo assumed the presidency in 2001.
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