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OCTA Research: COVID-19 reproduction number in NCR down to 1.86


Metro Manila’s COVID-19 reproduction number has decreased to 1.86 amid a tightening of restrictions aimed at curbing transmission, the OCTA Research group said Tuesday.

Interviewed on Unang Balita, Professor Guido David said the capital region’s reproduction was 2.05 last week, prior to the implementation of enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) over Metro Manila and neighboring areas.

“Significant naman ‘yung decrease and in fact naka-two days pa lang tayo ng ECQ. We’re expecting na bababa ‘yung reproduction number by the end of the week, baka nasa 1.4 na lang siya or 1.3,” he said.

[The decrease is significant and in fact we’ve only been under ECQ for two days. We’re expecting that the reproduction number will go down by the end of the week, maybe to 1.4 or 1.3.]

The reproduction number refers to the number of people that each COVID-19 case can infect.

“Hindi ibig sabihin nito na pababa na ‘yung bilang ng kaso (This doesn’t mean cases are on a downward trend),” Guido explained.

“The fact na greater than 1 ‘yung reproduction number, it means tumataas pa rin ‘yung bilang ng kaso so kukulangin pa rin 'yung one week para sa mga hospitals natin kasi the fact na tumataas ‘yung numbers, it means mas marami ang mangangailangan ng hospital care,” he added.

[The fact that the reproduction number is greater than 1 means cases are still increasing, so one week will not be enough for our hospitals because it means more people will still need hospital care.]

The ECQ over Metro Manila, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, and Laguna—collectively called NCR Plus—will expire on April 4

The Department of Health (DOH), however, has recommended a one-week extension of the ECQ. 

The DOH’s top epidemiologist earlier said a one-week ECQ would not be enough to sustain a downtrend in COVID-19 infections. 

The Philippines logged a record-high 10,016 new cases on Monday afternoon, pushing total active cases to 115,495. 

The DOH said the ECQ was reimposed to stop active cases from reaching 430,000 by the end of April. —KG, GMA News

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