OCTA: NCR COVID-19 cases not yet rising as reproduction number increases to 0.48

The number of new COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) is not yet rising even as its reproduction number increased to 0.48, the OCTA Research group said Monday.

This is only slightly higher than the 0.45 reproduction number reported on Saturday.

Reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

“Are cases rising in the NCR? The short answer is no, at least not yet,” OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said in a tweet.

“While new cases over the past few days were higher than 1,000, the trends are still in line with weekly patterns,” he added.

David said the 7-day average in the region further decreased to 945.

“In other words, there is no indication yet of an upward trend,” David said.

Alert Level 3 was imposed over NCR starting October 16 until October 31.

With this, movie theaters in NCR have been allowed to open up to 30% indoor venue capacity for fully vaccinated individuals.

David urged the public to follow minimum health protocols “to avoid a possible spike in cases.”

Data from the Philippine National Police showed that a total of 82,191 quarantine violators have been recorded in NCR since the implementation of the Alert Level 3.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire previously said Alert Level 3 in the NCR may soon be lowered if COVID-19 numbers continue to decrease.

The Philippines on Sunday reported 5,279 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the nationwide tally to 2,756,923 and active cases to 60,957. —KG, GMA News