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President Benigno Aquino III, Vice President Jejomar Binay and former President Joseph Estrada appear to be the most potent endorsers for candidates running in the 2013 senatorial race, according to a new survey by Pulse Asia.
Pulse Asia, which conducted the survey from Feb. 26 to March 9, said the local church to which a voter belongs will also be a positive factor.
In contrast, the pollster also pointed out former President and Pampanga Rep. Gloria Arroyo still holds the "kiss of death" effect.
"Endorsements made by President Aquino, Vice-President Binay, former President Joseph Estrada and the respondent’s church or religious group are positively received by most Filipinos. At least 51 percent and at most 73 percent of Filipinos say they will surely or probably vote for any senatorial candidate endorsed by these entities for the May 2013 elections," it said.
However, it said four of five Filipinos - 82 percent - are "probably or surely not voting for any senatorial bet endorsed by former President Arroyo."
At most, 10 percent of Filipinos say electoral endorsements made by any of these entities will not affect their choices for the May 2013 senatorial elections.
Pulse Asia said its survey also showed big pluralities to small majorities across geographic areas (43 to 57 percent) and socio-economic classes (43 to 56 percent) would probably support a senatorial candidate endorsed by Aquino.
Likewise, near to sizeable majorities in every geographic area (47 to 63 percent) and small to considerable majorities in each socio-economic grouping (53 to 61 percent) express probable support for a senatorial bet endorsed by Binay.
A small majority in the rest of Luzon (53 percent) and big pluralities in Classes D and E (43 percent to 44 percent) are likely to elect a senatorial bet supported by Estrada, although a big plurality of Visayans (43 percent) is likely not to do the same..
On the other hand, Pulse Asia said "around the same percentages" of Metro Manilans, Mindanaoans and those in Class ABC would probably either vote or not vote for a senatorial candidate endorsed by Estrada (32 to 38 percent versus 23 to 28 percent).
Estrada and Binay are entering into a coalition, with Estrada's Partido ng Masang Pilipino and Binay's PDP-Laban forming the United Nationalist Alliance.
The survey showed big pluralities to bare majorities in the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao (47 to 50 percent) and Classes D and E (46 to 51 percent) are likely to elect to the Senate candidates chosen by their church or religious group.
In Metro Manila and Class ABC, nearly the same percentages would either probably vote or not vote for such a candidate (34 to 36 percent versus 26 to 28 percent).
Arroyo's kiss of death
As for Mrs. Arroyo, Pulse Asia said near to big majorities across all geographic areas (47 to 70 percent) and socio-economic classes (59 to 72 percent) "would certainly not back any senatorial bet she endorses for the May 2013 elections."
Pulse Asia said the survey fieldwork was conducted from February 26 to March 9, using face-to-face interviews.
It said the following developments preoccupied Filipinos immediately prior to and during the conduct of the interviews for this survey:
- the ongoing impeachment trial of Corona
- the arraignment for electoral fraud of former President and Pampanga Rep. Gloria Arroyo
- the death and destruction caused by a magnitude-6.9 earthquake in the Visayas on February 6
- commemoration of the 26th anniversary of EDSA People Power I
- the controversies involving a few presidential appointees
- the death of Negros Occidental Rep. Ignacio "Iggy" Arroyo Jr. and the fight over his remains
- the increase in oil prices, fluctuating power rates, declining headline inflation rate, and the record-breaking performance of the Philippine Stock Exchange.
Pulse Asia said the survey is based on a sample of 1,200 representative adults 18 years old and above, with a ± 3% error margin at the 95-percent confidence level.
Subnational estimates for each of the geographic areas covered in the survey (Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao) have a ± 6% error margin, also at 95% confidence level. — RSJ/HS, GMA News