Expert on South China Sea dispute: Hold on to what we have

The Philippines must fortify its defense of the areas still in its possession in the West Philippine Sea while awaiting the verdict of the United Nations-backed international arbitral tribunal on its territorial row with Beijing, an expert on China said Tuesday. 

 

Chito Sta. Romana, a journalist who lived in Beijing for more than three decades and worked as Beijing Bureau chief of ABC News, said in a forum on the West Philippine Sea at the University of the Philippines that the government should not idly wait for the decision of the Netherlands-based Permanent Court of Arbitration.

 

“[While] we have no choice but to go through the arbitration process. We should defend and hold on to what we still have,. But we should not do it in a way that we fire the first shot. Because if that happens, the dispute might escalate into a military conflict and there’s a possibility that we’ll lose control over an island or reef,” Sta. Romana said.

 

The Philippines has submitted its memorial to the arbitral tribunal detailing the legal bases for its protest against China’s claim over the West Philippine Sea.

 

China, however, has reiterated its refusal to take part in the arbitration proceedings despite the arbitral tribunal’s order for it to submit a counter memorial to the Philippine complaint by December 15. 2014. 

 

Military tactics

 

Sta. Romana said that while China is still lukewarm about entering into an armed conflict with any of the countries it is at odds with because of territorial claims in the South China Sea, it will not hesitate to retaliate with gunfire once it is provoked.

 

But more than beefing up the country’s military capabilities, Sta. Romana said the Armed Forces of the Philippines should invest in training soldiers to strategize wisely. 

 

The military should revisit the events that led to the Philippines losing control of Mischief Reef and learn from them, he added.

 

“Military tactics is important. The reason why we lost Mischief Reef was because of our military’s incorrect understanding of the Chinese military’s tactics,” Sta. Romana said.

 

The Philippines lost control of Mischief Reef to China in 1995 after the Chinese military put up structures on it. The reef is only about 130 miles away from Palawan.

 

Politics of patience

 

Former defense secretary Orly Mercado said Philippine leaders should exercise caution in making hasty remarks about the country’s territorial row with China, since these may further escalate the tensions between the two countries.

 

He said it will be prudent for the government to exercise patience in trying to resolve its territorial row with China since Beijing is no longer a stranger to playing the waiting game.

 

“We should practice the politics of patience… we can’t afford to make mistakes. Unfortunately, we Filipinos are not the type who usually come up with a strategic plan. For us, it’s not aim, ready, shoot but shoot, ready, aim,” he said. 

 

Although the territorial dispute seems unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, Mercado said the Philippines should not close its doors to the possibility of cooperating with China on areas like trade and environmental protection. 

 

Sta. Romana said the Philippines will have to dialogue to China whether or not it wins its case before the tribunal.

 

“If the result is positive, we’ll have to mobilize international public opinion to persuade China to follow [the ruling]. If we lose, we have to talk to China. Whatever the result of the arbitration is, we have to be prepared to talk eventually to the adversary,” he said. —NB, GMA News