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Binay slides, Roxas climbs in latest poll on 2016 presidentiables


Vice President Jejomar Binay and Sen. Grace Poe continue to be the top choices for president and vice president, respectively, according to the latest survey results by pollster Pulse Asia.

But Pulse Asia's survey conducted September 8 to 15 showed a decline in Binay's lead, amid recent corruption-related controversies hounding him and members of his family.

"If the May 2016 elections were held during the survey period, 31 percent of Filipinos would vote for Vice President Jejomar C. Binay as president. This overall voter preference puts the Vice-President ahead of 14 other personalities whose presidential chances in May 2016 are probed in this survey," it said.

Binay's share of the presidential vote was lower than the 41 percent in June, when his closest pursuers in the presidential race then included Poe and former President and now Manila Mayor Joseph Estrada.

Binay had been linked to a controversy involving alleged irregularities in the bidding and construction of the allegedly overpriced P2.7-billion Makati City Hall Building II.

Interior Secretary Manuel Roxas II, whom Binay defeated in the vice presidential race in 2010, was in second place in the September survey, getting support from 13 percent of the respondents. Roxas' numbers went up as he had only seven percent in the June survey.

Others in the September survey included:

- Miriam Santiago, 11 percent (7 percent in June)
- Grace Poe, 10 percent (12 percent in June)
- Joseph Estrada, 10 percent (9 percent in June)
- Sen. Francis Escudero, 5 percent (7 percent in June)
- Sen. Ferdinand Marcos Jr., 5 percent (5 percent in June)
- former Vice President Manuel "Noli" de Castro Jr., 3 percent
- former Sen. Richard Gordon, 2 percent (1 percent in June)
- former Sen. Panfilo Lacson, 1 percent
- Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano, 1 percent (5 percent in June)
- Rep. Leni Robredo, 1 percent
- Sen. Ramon "Bong" Revilla Jr., 1 percent (2 percent in June)
- Sen. Franklin Drilon, 0.4 percent (1 percent in June)
- former Sen. Francis Pangilinan, 0.2 percent

Lacson is presently the Presidential Assistant for Rehabilitation and Recovery while Pangilinan is the Presidential Assistant for Food Security and Agricultural Modernization.

Pulse Asia said Binay was the leading presidential candidate in the rest of Luzon (32 percent), Metro Manila (33 percent), and Mindanao (33 percent) as well as in Classes D and E (32 and 33 percent respectively).

"In Visayas, almost the same percentages express the same level of support for Vice President Binay and DILG Secretary Roxas (27% and 22%, respectively)," it said.

Pulse Asia also said that for Class ABC, the top presidential bets were Binay and Santiago with 23 and 17 percent respectively.

Vice President

For Vice President, Poe led the pack with 31 percent, followed by Escudero with 19 percent, Cayetano with 9 percent, Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV with 7 percent, and Marcos with 6 percent.

Others mentioned in the vice presidential survey were:

- Batangas Gov. Vilma Santos, 6 percent
- Sen. Jinggoy Estrada, 5 percent
- Sen. Franklin Drilon, 5 percent
- Sen. Ramon Revilla Jr., 3 percent
- Rep. Leni Robredo, 3 percent
- trader Manuel Pangilinan, 2 percent

Pulse Asia said Poe enjoyed sizeable plurality "in practically all geographic areas (29% to 36%) and every socio-economic grouping (30% to 31%)."

The only exception is in Mindanao where almost the same voter preferences are recorded by Poe and Escudero at 29 versus 23 percent.

Methodology

The nationwide survey interviewed 1,200 people aged 18 and up, and has a ± 3 percent error margin at the 95-percent confidence level.

Subnational estimates for geographic areas including Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao have a ± 6 percent error margin, also at 95 percent confidence level.

At the time the survey was taken, the following issues topped the headlines:

- the ongoing Senate investigation into reported overpricing in the Makati CityHall Building II. Witnesses claimed the bidding was rigged.

- Albay Gov. Jose Salceda suggested that Vice President Binay be impeached over corruption charges in connection with the alleged overpricing.

- the junking of three impeachment complaints against President Benigno Aquino III, which were found insufficient in substance.

- the 90-day suspension slapped on Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile emanating from the alleged P10-billion pork barrel mess.

- arrest of the suspects in a foiled "bombing attempt" at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Terminal 3 Sept. 1.

- confirmation of Gen. Gregorio Pio Catapang Jr. as Armed Forces of the Philippines chief of staff.
- President Aquino's request to Congress for emergency powers so he can address an impending energy crisis in 2015.
- the transmittal of the draft Bangsamoro Basic Law to Congress
- calls for the resignation of Philippine National Police chief Director General Alan Purisima over crimes involving policemen and President Aquino's expression of trust in him.
- a reported statement by Vice President Binay regarding his preference for trader Manuel Pangilinan as his running mate in May 2016.
- talks of a second term for President Aquino.
- Catholic Church leaders' preparations for Pope Francis' visit in January.
- public uproar against the construction of a condominium tower in Manila that threatens to ruin the view of the Rizal Monument.
- oath-taking of Associate Justice Francis Jardeleza as the newest member of the Supreme Court.
- President Aquino's visit to Europe and the United States.
- port congestion in Manila.
- continuing woes experienced by passengers of the Metro Rail Transit (MRT) Line 3.

—Joel Locsin/KBK/NB, GMA News