DOH exec: Too risky to say COVID-19 already peaked in Philippines

The Department of Health (DOH) on Thursday said it cannot declare yet if the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence in the country has already peaked, more than six weeks since Luzon and other high-risk provinces in the Philippines had been placed under strict confinement measures.

In a virtual conference with reporters, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said that while there are no drastic changes in the number of new cases that are reported daily, it would also be premature to call the phase a plateau.

"When we say it's plateuing, makikita natin doon sa graph na walang masyadong change and parang nagsta-stabilize siya across that numbers," she said.

"It's quite risky for us to declare now that we are plateauing and that we really are reaching that peak. Wala pa ho tayo diyan," she added.

The health official, without elaborating on specific figures, explained that peak estimates could still change overtime as expanded mass testing continues.

"We are doing expanded testing already in different areas of the country and we expect the numbers to increase because of this kasi mas marami nang nade-detect," she said.

"Kung anuman ang meron kami na datos para i-estimate ang mga [peak], mababago po lahat 'yan sa pagpasok ng mas maraming datos sa mga dadating na araw," she added.

Further, Vergeire said the government now relies on one disease surveillance platform to project possible COVID-19 scenarios in the country.

"Tatlo 'yung ginagamit noong una but ngayon 'yung FASSSTER estimates ang ginagamit natin," she said.

She was referring to the Feasibility Analysis of Syndromic Surveillance using Spatio-Temporal Epidemiological Modeler (FASSSTER) which has been funded by the Department of Science and Technology.

The health official said she cannot disclose projections yet on when the health crisis will be over in the country.

As of April 29, the Philippines recorded a total of 8,212 confirmed cases of COVID-19, with 558 deaths and 1,023 recoveries. — RSJ, GMA News