COVID-19 curve in Philippines flattening at a 'dramatic rate' -expert

The Philippines continues to make headway in the fight against COVID-19, as a public health expert associated with the inter-agency task force said Tuesday the flattening of the curve is now "more evident" in the National Capital Region, where majority of the cases are.

At a virtual press briefing, Dr. John Wong, an Associate Professor at the Ateneo School of Medicine, said case doubling time in the country is now at 4.6 days, higher than the baseline of 2.5 days.

"The ECQ (enhanced community quarantine) does not have an immediate effect. It takes time," said Wong, who is part of the data analytics expert group of the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF).

"By April 1, the case doubling time took three days, and it has [been] flattening at a more dramatic rate. In National Capital Region where 70% of the COVID-19 cases are,  the flattening is more evident."

The ECQ, declared 51 days ago, banned mass transportation and prohibited mass gathering which resulted in work stoppage in many industries.

Wong, during the virtual press briefing, presented data from 10 days ago showing case doubling time at 4.6 days for National Capital Region (NCR), 5.8 days for Luzon excluding NCR, 5.4 days for Visayas, and 5.3 days for Mindanao.

He also said death doubling time for Luzon excluding NCR even breached seven days.

"Even if we add the latest COVID-19 cases [for the last 10 days], it will not substantially pick up the curve. The doubling time of cases and deaths have been slowing down," he said.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire echoed Wong, saying the country’s positivity rate is at 10%.

"Even considering the 8,000 specimen backlogs, 10% ang positivity rate natin. That would be 800 cases, and it will not affect that data [showing flattening of the curve]," Vergeire said.

"Nakikita nating magandang indication [ito]."

Vergeire, however, said it is still not the time to be complacent.

"We must not be complacent, as we have to make sure that our health capacity will be able to address the expected surge of cases once the quarantine is lifted," she warned.

As of May 4, the Philippines has 9,485 COVID-19 cases. Of this number, 1,315 have recovered while 623 have died. --KBK, GMA News