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Aggressive China actions, pandemic seen to bind sea code talks –experts

By MICHAELA DEL CALLAR

China’s recent aggressive actions in the South China Sea, and the COVID-19 pandemic are seen to hamper talks on a proposed code of conduct in the disputed waters, maritime experts said Friday.

Analysts, in an online briefing, said the recent sinking of a Vietnamese vessel by a Chinese Coast Guard ship in the Paracels, and Beijing’s unilateral declaration of new territorial districts in the disputed waters—drawing protests from Vietnam, and the Philippines—are seen to heavily impact negotiations for the elusive code.

With all the delays caused by the pandemic to regional meetings, they said China’s preferred three-year deadline to conclude the document, aimed at restraining hostile acts in the disputed waters, seem to be growing difficult each month.

“Now things look even gloomier given what is happening in the South China Sea right now,” said Dr. Hung Son Nguyen, Director General and Head of the Institute for the South China Sea at the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam.

Both Vietnam and the Philippines denounced the sinking of a Vietnamese vessel by the Chinese Coast Guard on April 2, and China’s establishment of two administrative zones in the South China Sea.

Both countries had said such acts undermine the peace and security in the resource-rich waters.

On the other hand, the United States has accused China of taking advantage of the pandemic to assert its claim in the South China Sea. Beijing decried the accusation.

“To salvage the code of conduct process, China needs to look at its behavior, its activities in the South China Sea and show its willingness, political will to create conducive environment for ASEAN states to be convinced that the code of conduct is still viable,” Hung said.

Jay Batongbacal, Director of the Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea at the University of the Philippines, feared the sea code talks could hit a “deadlock” unless parties come up with confidence-building measures.

“If that kind of negative trend of assertion continues then by the time this is over and diplomatic activities resume, we could see all this building up into a kind of backlash when things resume,” Batongbacal said.

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“States may not be amenable as before or open or cooperative as before especially on matters related to explorations, fishing, military encounters —all of these events in recent months will play into concerns of the diplomats when they decide to resume negotiations.”

Despite delays in the meetings caused by COVID-19 threat, Sumathy Permal of the Maritime Institute of Malaysia, said ASEAN and China should ensure that the process of talks on the code of conduct would continue.

The ASEAN, she said, should “stay together to come up with one voice” to try to resolve the disputes and include regional arrangements for maritime protection in the waters. 

On April 18, China announced that its so-called districts of “Nansha” and “Xisha” will have authority over the Spratlys and the Paracels, respectively, under the authority of the local government in Sansha, a recently established Chinese city in the Southern island of Hainan.

Beijing also gave Chinese names to the features in the disputed waters —a move rejected by the Philippines and Vietnam – two of the most vocal South China Sea claimants.

“Things don’t look great right now,” Gregory Poling, director of the Washington-based Asia Martime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“News has been universally bad for the last three months or so. But is has been much more obvious during the COVID-19 pandemic,” Poling said.

China, which considers the sea disputes a purely Asian issue is opposed to any foreign intervention, particularly the US.

However, multilateral efforts to counter China are still the key, Poling pointed out.

“All claimants and the international community, including the US, are losing the South China Sea, but it is not lost. It does however require action now,” he said. —LBG, GMA News