Experts on actual COVID-19 cases missing the 40k June projection: More or less it's the same

Experts who earlier said the number of COVID-19 cases in the Philippines will reach 40,000 by the end of June on Tuesday said the latest actual figures were within the error margin of their study.

“Kung nasa within the error tayo, for me parang semantics lang ‘yan. Hindi naman tayo nasa 30,000 or nasa 50,000,” said University of the Philippines mathematics professor Guido David on GMA's Unang Hirit.

“More or less it’s about the same…Status quo ‘yung nangyayari. I think we have to intensify ‘yung efforts natin (against COVID-19 spread),” he added.

On June 11, David’s team projected that the total number of COVID-19 cases in the country may reach the 40,000 mark by June 30. As of June 29, however, the total cases in the Philippines were recorded at 36,438, according to the Department of Health.

Presidential spokesperson Harry Roque on Monday said Filipinos disproved the experts' projection of 40,000 cases by the end of June after Sunday’s data showed that the country’s total infections stood at 35,455.

David, however, said their study has an error margin of 10%, he said.

“Kapag may projection, maaaring ma-exceed natin or ma-under ano ‘yung target na ‘yun. Makikita ‘yung performance natin versus doon sa previous,” David said.

Aside from the total confirmed cases, David noted that the positivity rate, recovery rate, and mortality rate should also be considered in assessing the COVID-19 situation in the Philippines.

According to him, these rates in the country were actually improving.

Biology professor Rev. Fr. Nicanor Austriaco of Providence College and University of Santo Tomas, who is part of David's team that did the study, encouraged the government to prioritize localized lockdowns, targeted testing, and contact tracing to fight the spread of COVID-19.

“Now the pandemic is being driven primarily by changes in Cebu. If the government is able to control the spread in Cebu, then you should be able to control the pandemic throughout the country,” he said.

However, Austriaco suggested that the current picture of the total number of cases in the country may not be accurate considering the backlog of the Department of Health in validating cases.

Austriaco pointed out that the government should have a “science-driven decision making” as he suggested not to relax quarantine measures until the positivity and hospitalization resource utilization rates drop for two weeks.

The group of experts recently projected more than 60,000 cases of COVID-19 by July 31.

Roque on Monday urged the public to observe precautionary measures so that the country’s COVID-19 cases will not reach more than 60,000 by July 31 as projected by the experts.

He called on the people to wear face masks, wash their hands, and observe physical distancing.

“Hinihimok ko kayo, let’s prove the UP data wrong, let’s have lesser cases of COVID-19,” he said in a televised briefing. —Joviland Rita/KG, GMA News