Philippines close to flattening curve during MECQ in NCR, nearby areas —UP expert

The Philippines was close to flattening the curve of COVID-19 cases when Metro Manila and four nearby provinces were under modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ), an expert from the University of the Philippines said Tuesday.

Interviewed on  Unang Hirit, Prof. Guido David of UP-OCTA Research Team said that the 15-day MECQ, which would end on August 18, caused a decline in COVID-19 cases.

David noted that the R-naught (R0), which describes the reproduction of COVID-19 cases, dropped from 1.5 in end of July to 1.1 now in August. An R0 below 1 means a flattened curve, he said.

“Bumababa talaga siya kasi dati nasa 1.5 siya noong end of July. Ngayon, nasa 1.1 na lang siya halos. Malaki rin itong binababa kasi, kung bumaba 'to less than 1, ibig sabihin nag-flatten na 'yung curve,” he said.

“Ibig sabihin medyo malapit na tayo mag-flatten ng curve,” he added.

President Rodrigo Duterte placed Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, Bulacan and Rizal under MECQ or stricter lockdown from August 4 to 18 following pleas from the medical community for a “timeout” amid rising COVID-19 cases being admitted to hospitals and recalibration of strategies to combat the virus.

David noted that flattening the curve does not mean there will be no more new COVID-19 cases. He said it only means the number of COVID-19 cases is already declining.

“Hindi naman ibig sabihin flattening the curve is wala nang cases. In fact, sa Cebu, is an example na flatten ang curve, nasa mga 200 cases plus pa sila per day,” he said.

“Ibig sabihin lang ng flatten na curve, pababa na siya,” he added.

On Monday, Duterte announced that NCR and other areas will return to general community quarantine, which imposes a more relaxed restriction.

David advised concerned areas to still observe quarantine measures strictly, like in Cebu City, to achieve a flattened curve in the Philippines despite the easing up of restrictions.

UP-OCTA has recommended a 15-day extension of MECQ in Metro Manila in the four provinces. —KBK, GMA News