UP experts recommend extension of GCQ over Metro Manila

Metro Manila should be kept under general community quarantine (GCQ) to avoid the risk of a surge in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in December, experts from the University of the Philippines-OCTA Research team said Monday.

The experts said health indicators in the capital region must improve further before restrictions are loosened to a modified GCQ.

In their report to the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) on Emerging Infectious Diseases, the experts said the case doubling time in Metro Manila was at 13 days as of September 24 while the positivity rate was down to 9 percent.

The World Health Organization’s benchmark for the positivity rate is 5 percent or lower.

“While the situation in the NCR has improved as the rate of transmission, the number of cases, as well as the positivity rate and the measure for hospital resource utilization are all on a downward trend, it has not yet achieved the crucial 28 days case doubling time requirement set by IATF to be classified into an MGCQ status,” they said.

The researchers also warned that while the reproduction numbers of the entire Philippines and Metro Manila were decreasing, “this positive trend is not irreversible and significant efforts have to be undertaken by all stakeholders to sustain it.”

“Therefore, we recommend that [the] national government consider maintaining the current GCQ status for the NCR until its regional health indicators further improve to qualify it for the MGCQ status,” they said.

“Based on past data and trends, a premature downgrading of the quarantine status in the NCR may increase the risk of a surge in December around Christmas time,” the experts added.

President Rodrigo Duterte is expected to deliver his weekly address on Monday night.

Malacañang said Duterte may soon announce his latest directives concerning quarantine restrictions for the month of October. 

The Philippines has 307,288 COVID-19 cases as of Monday afternoon. 

High-risk areas

Meanwhile, the experts identified several “high risk areas” or places where over 100 new COVID-19 cases are recorded daily.

“The high risk areas are still Bulacan, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, Negros Occidental and Rizal. But it must be noted that the number of new cases in these areas decreased compared to the previous week,” they said.

The experts urged the national and concerned local governments to intensify testing, tracing, and isolation efforts to arrest the spike in infections.

The researchers also said that Baguio City and Cagayan de Oro were emerging hotspots, or areas “where the number of new cases increased over a two-week period, and the number of new cases was at least 10 per million of population per day.”

The experts also projected 380,000 to 410,000 COVID-19 cases in the Philippines by December 31 based on the reproduction number of 0.85 logged during September 19 to 26. — BM, GMA News