Halving COVID-19 positivity, reproduction rates in NCR will flatten curve —expert

COVID-19 reproduction and positivity rates in the National Capital Region (NCR) — the epicenter of COVID-19 pandemic in the Philippines — should be halved to flatten the curve, a member of the UP-OCTA Research Team said Tuesday.

Dr. Butch Ong of  UP-OCTA Research Team made the comments less than a day after President Rodrigo Duterte decided to keep Metro Manila under general community quarantine, a protocol that only allows limited public transportation and restricted operation in various industries.

“To flatten the curve is to lower the number of cases so our healthcare capacity can take care of those who are sick. Ang ating curve, in a way, nafa-flatten, but it can still increase anytime,” Ong said at the Laging Handa briefing.

“The only way we can maintain it is by lowering the reproduction value. It is now at .77 in NCR. If we could make it to .5 or lower, that will surely bring the curve down to a very controllable state. And if we can bring the positivity rate at 5% or below, that will further flatten the curve to the ideal level,” he added.

At present, the positivity rate in NCR is at 9%.

Based on Department of Health data, the biggest number of new COVID-19 cases in the last 14 days has been recorded in NCR with 12,216.

This was followed by Region 4A (Calabarzon) with 6,374, Region 3 or Central Luzon with 2,753, Region 6 or Western Visayas with 2,261 and Region 7 or Central Visayas with 1,083.

On Tuesday, a Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey showed that 85% of Filipinos are worried about getting infected with COVID-19.

The Philippines has recorded 307,288 COVID-19 cases so far. Of this number, 252,665 recovered while 5,381 died.

The number of active COVID-19 cases in the country is at 49,242. —KBK, GMA News