Makati, Baguio, Mandaluyong, Lucena top high-risk areas for COVID-19 —OCTA report

The OCTA Research Team has identified the cities of Makati, Baguio, Mandaluyong and Lucena as top high-risk areas for COVID-19 due to increased average of new cases recorded per day and critical care occupancy reaching 69% and above.

Based on the latest OCTA report, Makati topped the list by recording an average of 59 COVID-19 cases per day and a 10% attack rate from October 11 to 17 — a situation that the city has to address with its critical care occupancy at 79% as of October 16.

The safe level of attack rate is at 7%.

Ranking second is Baguio City, which will open to tourists from Metro Manila and other parts of Luzon in two days, with an average of 39 COVID-19 cases recorded per day.

Baguio City’s attack rate is at 11.1% while its hospital capacity is at 69%.

At third place is Mandaluyong City clocking in an average of 34 COVID-19 cases per day. Though it has a lower attack rate of 8%, its hospital capacity is at 75%.

Lucena City in Quezon, on the other hand, is at fourth place after registering an average of 24 COVID-19 cases per day and an 8% attack rate. Its hospital capacity, however, is already at 95%.

“The concern is that these LGUs identified as high-risk may experience an overwhelming of their healthcare systems and their medical frontliners in the coming weeks,” the OCTA report read.

Rounding up the top 10 high risk areas for COVID-19 are Pasig City, Iloilo City, Pasay City, Marikina City, Ilagan, Isabela and Batangas City.

By regions, Region 4A or Calabarzon posted the highest COVID-19 positivity rate in the country at 11% — a figure eclipsing that of National Capital Region (NCR) at 6% and the national figure of 9.9%, the OCTA Research Team said.

Calabarzon’s 11% COVID-19 positivity rate is largely due to Batangas, Cavite and Laguna provinces, having a 9% positivity rate as well as high case load and high attack rate in Calamba, in Laguna, Lucena in Quezon, Santo Tomas in Batangas, Taytay and Cainta in Rizal, General Trias in Cavite, and Batangas City

Batangas City posted a lower average of 19 COVID-19 cases per day at 6.2% attack rate during the same period compared with Lucena City, but its critical care capacity is also almost full at 95%.

“Attention is needed in Lucena and Batangas City. The local government units (LGU)  concerned need to further intensify their efforts at testing, tracing, and isolation to reverse the increase of transmissions at the community level,” OCTA said.

“Moreover, they need to implement  more aggressive and effective localized lockdowns with stricter border controls to suppress further viral transmissions,” OCTA added.

NCR gets better

On the other hand, COVID-19 cases in the NCR — the center of economic activity in the country — continue to decrease.

The OCTA team said on top of a decreased positivity rate at 6%, the reproduction rate is NCR has reached .7 or lower than the national reproduction rate of .8.

Still, the hospital occupancy in the cities of Makati, Mandaluyong and Muntinlupa are all above 70%. Makati and Mandaluyong are at 79% and 75%, respectively, while Muntinlupa is at 73%.

NCR areas with the most number of new cases are Quezon City, Manila, Pasig, Taguig and Caloocan, while the high risk areas due to high case load and high attack rate include Pasig, Makati, Pasay, Mandaluyong, Marikina and Valenzuela.

"Based on the latest data, the value of reproduction for the entire Philippines and in the NCR still remains below 1 and is trending in the right direction," OCTA said.

"These positive trends have been sustained over the last four weeks. However, these are not irreversible. Significant efforts need to be sustained by all sectors of society to ensure that these positive trends will continue," it added.

The OCTA Research Team is an independent and interdisciplinary research group composed primarily of UP faculty members and alumni. Its research team also includes contributors from the University of Santo Tomas and Providence College in the United States of America.  —KBK, GMA News