What will a Biden win mean for the Philippines? La Viña analyzes

It would be favorable for the Philippines and the rest of the world if Joe Biden wins US presidential election, Filipino governance expert Tony La Viña said on Thursday.

In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, and China's aggression in the West Philippine Sea, the Democrat challenger's projected victory would be "good," according to the former dean of the Ateneo School of Government.

"It's a very different US that will now be confronting the world. Then, the US of Trump was unilateral, America first, very self-centered, very erratic," La Viña said in a phone interview with GMA News Online.

"Under Biden, you will have more predictable, more deliberate [US government], a better partner internationally in most things, more multilateral than Trump [administration]," he added.

Less US conflict with China

The Philippines could expect less "conflict" between the two superpowers US and China if Biden wins.

"Overall, it would be better because we need the US to be supportive of the Philippines with respect to China but also not reckless. I think Trump is reckless and Biden, in a way, would be more predictable," La Viña said.

"Less chance [of conflict] kasi mas diplomatic siya. Ang diplomacy kasi requires predictability. Nagkaka-giyera tayo kapag hindi predictable," he added.

Nonetheless, La Viña said this does not mean Biden would have a weaker stance on crucial issues involving China. The same "firm" position against the Asian superpower's aggression could still be expected from the US.

He added that incumbent US President Donald Trump was also not a war-monger, in a sense, given the latter's previous decisions to withdraw American troops from conflict-ridden areas.

"In fairness naman to Trump mukhang anti-war siya. Takot siya sa giyera. Malakas ang yabang pero pagdating ng crunch time ayaw niya ng giyera," he said. "I credit him for that."

Former Armed Forces of the Philippines chief  Emmanuel Bautista recently said China will "seize" the Philippines if a war breaks out between Beijing and Washington.

The Philippines and China are both claimants of some portions of the South China Sea. An international tribunal ruling in favor of the country invalidated China's massive claims in the disputed waters but Beijing refuses to recognize it.

Climate change and COVID-19

A US government under Biden is also expected to be more dependable on climate change and global COVID-19 pandemic response efforts, according to the expert.

"The main issue that we need the US to take a lead on is climate change at the global level. We have just been hit by a very big climate event that destroyed half of Luzon. It will happen again and again unless the US and China take a lead," La Viña said, referring to the massive destruction caused by super typhoon Rolly.

He stressed that an "isolated" US under Trump has not taken climate change seriously.

On Wednesday, the US formally left the Paris agreement on climate change, as ordered by climate denier Trump. In response, Biden later that night tweeted, "Today, the Trump Administration officially left the Paris Climate Agreement. And in exactly 77 days, a Biden Administration will rejoin it."

A more open US under a new leadership would also be good for international collaborative efforts to fight the global pandemic, La Viña added.

"Definitely, Biden will be good. They'll go back to the WHO [World Health Organization], they'll cooperate with other countries, they'll share their vaccine," he said.

In July, the US withdrew from the WHO, amid Trump's harsh criticism of the UN body.

More aggressive protection of human rights

The US would also likely take a stronger stance on human rights protection if Biden unseats Trump—a development that may not be taken lightly by President Rodrigo Duterte, who launched the controversial war on drugs in the Philippines.

"I expect the Biden administration to be more aggressive on human rights because that's always like that for democratic administrations," La Viña said. "That could affect also our relationship with the US. Remember Duterte was angry at [former US President Barack] Obama. That could also happen here."

"Duterte will again react badly to that, so we'll see," he added. "The US might deal with human rights but that's secondary to them. They want to have a good relationship with us because of China. They want us to be on their side because of China."

La Viña predicts that the victory of Biden in the White House race is "more or less assured" as many states have already aligned their votes for the democratic candidate.

"There's no pathway for Trump to win anymore," he said, adding that Trump's re-election would be "bad" for the fight against the pandemic, climate change, immigration, and international cooperation.

Biden's pivotal victories in Michigan and Wisconsin have given him a boost in the ongoing race to obtain 270 electoral votes in a bid to secure the top seat in the White House.

La Viña does not think the US election results would have any impact on the upcoming 2022 elections in the Philippines: "US stays away naman sa mga election ngayon. Dati nakikialam sila pero I don't think [they will], especially na-experience na nila 'yung ginawa ng Russia sa kanila."

US intelligence agencies have previously concluded that Russia interfered in the 2016 US presidential elections through cyber attacks, with the aim of helping Trump win. This has been denied by Moscow. — BM, GMA News