DOH: COVID-19 daily attack, reproduction rates reach more than one in 12 NCR cities

At least 12 cities in Metro Manila have registered a COVID-19 daily attack rate and reproduction rate of more than one, prompting authorities to place them under strict monitoring, the Department of Health (DOH) said Wednesday. 

“These cities in Metro Manila are showing more than one average daily attack rate and reproduction rate kaya binabantayan natin ‘yun,” Vergeire said in an online forum. 

“But that is not to say that hindi natin binabantayan ang buong Metro Manila because we have seen plateauing of cases in other cities, meaning hindi nagtuloy sa pagbaba,” Vergeire added.

With no decrease in the number of COVID-19 cases in sight, authorities have been placed on high alert, she said. 

“This is a warning signal for us to start focusing and [conduct] strict monitoring of all cities in Metro Manila,” Vergeire said. 

The OCTA Research on Monday said there has been an uptrend in the reproduction rate of COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila, and this is expected to continue in the coming days.

The reproduction number (R0) or the average number of people infected by one person in a susceptible population is "now at 1.06 and increasing," David told GMA News reporter Joseph Morong on Monday.

The research team previously said that a value higher than one indicates the pandemic is spreading.

From 0.90 on December 1, NCR’s reproduction number hit 0.94 on December 5, then reached 0.96 on December 10. On Dec. 11, the R0 in the region was at 0.99, according to David on Sunday. It was 0.88 last November.

Based on DOH data, Metro Manila remains the region with the most number of active COVID-19 cases recorded in the last two weeks with 4,399.

Region 4A or Calabarzon is a far second with 2,702 cases, followed by Region 3 which has 1,587. 

Vergeire, however, clarified that the data does not show that those aged 17 and below are super spreaders even though they are largely asymptomatic when they get the disease. 

“We do not have this kind of data. Wala po tayong nakikitang ganyang trend,” Vergeire said. 

The Philippines has recorded 451,839 COVID-19 cases as of Tuesday. 

Of this number, 418,867 recovered while 8,812 died. 

The number of active cases is at 24,160.

The OCTA Research meanwhile said the number of COVID-19 cases in the country will reach close to 500,000 by the end of the year. 

Dr. Guido David of OCTA Research said their projection is because of the coming Christmas celebrations after nine months in quarantine. —KG, GMA News