Possible post-holiday surge of COVID-19 cases known by Jan. 15 —Duque

Department of Health (DOH) Secretary Francisco Duque III on Monday said the expected holiday-related surge of COVID-19 cases -- if ever it happens -- would be known by January 15.

At the Laging Handa public briefing, Duque said the number of new daily infections has been maintained, but noted that the public tends not to consult health professionals during the holiday season.

“Although napapanatili natin na mababa ang bilang ng mga confirmed new cases on a daily basis, hindi pa po tayo puwedeng magsalita ng tapos,” he said.

“Sa January 15 pa lang natin talaga malalaman kung ang inaasahang surge ay mangyayari o hindi,” he added.

Interviewed on GMA News TV’s Balitanghali, OCTA Research’s Guido David said the number of tests conducted during the holidays went down by 40% to 45%.

“During the holidays, bumababa yung number of testing natin. 'Yung number of tests conducted on average from December 25, mga 40 to 45 percent lang ng normal number of tests,” he said.

“Ibig sabhin, marami tayong hindi na-test o may late na results or reduced 'yung testing during the holidays. May mga ibang testing centers na sarado,” he added.

Like Duque, David said the possible post-holiday increase in COVID-19 cases can be seen within the week or next week. By this period, David said they can determine whether the increase is alarming.

Currently, David said the number of daily infections are returning to its  average number before Christmas. After December 25, the number dropped to around 320 cases, he added.

“Nakita na rin parang unti-unting bumabalik siya sa level in increase na nakita natin before December 25. Nags-average tayo ng almost 500 cases per day sa Metro Manila,’ David added.

In December, the OCTA Research warned of a possible surge of COVID-19 cases in the country amid the celebration of Christmas and New Year’s Day.

The DOH said the number of new COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region could reach 4,000 without aggressive interventions against the spread of the disease during the holidays.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire has warned that the number of new daily infections may overwhelm the health system capacity to 80% utilization by the end of January in 2021.

OCTA Research’s Guido David said the 4,000-daily new case projection is “actually on the higher end of the projection rather than the lower end.”

“Four thousand is actually a very critical number because last time we went to modified enhanced community quarantine, we were at 2,000 per day in Metro Manila,” he said. —KBK, GMA News