OCTA Research warns of possible ‘significant surge’ in COVID-19 cases in NCR

The OCTA Research Team is warning the government about the possibility of a "significant surge" in COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region in the next few weeks following increased social gatherings during the holidays.

In their latest report, the researchers also said the likelihood that the new coronavirus variant from the United Kingdom may already be in the Philippines and "super spreader" events such as the Feast of the Black Nazarene may contribute to the possible surge.

They urged the government to increase testing, scale up contact tracing, boost the capacity of the healthcare system to prepare for potential outbreaks, expedite the procurement of safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines and efficiently roll out an immunization program.

Citing data from the Department of Health, the research team said the reproduction number of the virus, which indicates the average number of people who may contract the disease from an infected person, has increased to 1.17.

They said the last time the reproduction number exceeded 1 was on December 21, when it was at 1.02.  A value above one indicates the pandemic is spreading, according to the researchers.

Sought for comment, presidential spokesperson Harry Roque said the decision whether to impose a stricter community quarantine will depend on the available data including the two-week attack rate and critical care capacity.

"Ang mabuting balita na lang po ay mayroon naman tayong sapat na kakayahan na gamutin kayo. Mukhang hindi po ma-o-overwhelm kumbaga ang ating health system, may sapat tayong ICU beds, mayroon tayong sapat na mga ward beds at isolation facilities," Roque said at a press briefing.

DOH Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire, meanwhile, urged caution in interpreting data on new infections.

"Ngayon lang po nagnu-normalize ang ating functions ng mga laboratories natin and this might have some effect on the number of reported cases," she said.

"Gusto ho nating tingnan pa nang by another one week pa siguro para we can have a more accurate conclusion kung ano po talaga ang trends ng mga kaso natin," she added.

Testing centers

The number of new cases in the NCR has also increased to more than 400 as testing centers resumed normal operations following the holidays, they said.

"There is a clear upward trend now... and if this upward trend continues, the local governments will need to implement measures to reverse this direction before the pandemic gets out of hand," the researchers said.

In Joseph Morong’s report on “24 Oras,” Professor Guido David from the OCTA Research team said cases being reported in the media were reduced by half during the holidays, but added this did not give the complete picture.

“May mga test centers na nagsarado or reduced ‘yung capacity nila. Mayroon ding late ‘yung report nila. So ang effect nu’n is parang nangalahati ‘yung number of cases natin nu’ng holiday,” David said.

“[N]akita natin na parang 1,000 or less than 1,000 cases per day ‘yung nare-report sa buong Philippines. That sounded good pero ‘yung reality is, we were not getting the complete picture,” he added.

At the same time, they observed that the positivity rate in the NCR over the past week stayed at 4%, fitting within the 5% "ideal" rate recommended by the World Health Organization.

From January 4 to 10, Quezon City still recorded the highest number of new cases per day in Metro Manila with 76 cases, but the researchers highlighted that Marikina's daily new cases climbed to 25 compared to 11 in the prior week.

Marikina also had the highest positivity rate among Metro Manila cities at 11%. Because of this, the OCTA research team called Marikina an "LGU of concern."

Outside Metro Manila, the researchers identified Davao del Sur including Davao City, Isabela, Quezon, Misamis Oriental, Pangasinan, Agusan Del Sur and Negros Oriental as provinces of concern due to an increase in new cases. They found that these areas had a positivity rate greater than 10%.

The researchers urged the national and local governments to work together to intensify testing, tracing, and isolation efforts to prevent further transmissions in their communities. Stricter border controls must also be put in place, they said.

Philippine health authorities have recorded 489,736 COVID-19 cases in the country as of Monday. More than 2,000 new infections were reported.

The national case count includes over 458,000 recoveries, some 22,000 active cases, and 9,416 deaths.

The DOH said last week that the UK variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 has not yet been detected in the Philippines. 

The government has imposed travel restrictions on passengers from several countries that have recorded cases of the new variant. — with Virgil Lopez/Joahna Lei Casilao/RSJ/LDF, GMA News