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OCTA Research projects 7,000 daily new COVID-19 cases by March-end


The OCTA Research group said the daily new cases of COVID-19 in the Philippines may climb to 7,000 by the end of March as the country on Saturday met its earlier projection of 5,000 new cases.

In an interview on Dobol B sa News TV, Dr. Guido David said the number of new cases was increasing at a faster rate than projected.

“[P]osible talagang pumalo ng 7,000 ‘yan. Puwede pang mas mataas doon. Conservative nga ‘yan. Ayoko nga magbigay ng masyadong mataas na number, sinasabihan tayo ng fear mongering tayo,” said David.

(It may reach 7,000. It could also be higher than that. This is still a conservative estimate. I don’t want to give a number that is too high as we are being accused of fear-mongering.)

The Philippines earlier reported 5,000 new infections, the highest reported in seven months, bringing the total tally to 616,611.

“Nakita natin 5,000 sa buong Pilipinas by end of March. Ngayon nangangalahati pa lang ‘yung March, wala pa ngang kalahati, naabutan na natin ‘yung 5,000 cases sa buong Pilipinas,” he said.

(We projected 5,000 new cases in the Philippines by the end of March. Now, it’s almost mid-March, not even that, and we already reached 5,000 cases for the entire country.)

David said the estimated reproduction number may have already increased to nearly 2.

A reproduction number of one or higher is an indication of the continuous transmission of the virus.

“Ibig sabihin mas mabilis ‘yung pagtaas kaysa sa inaakala natin. ‘Yung reproduction number nga nasa mga 2 na, eh, almost 2 na… ibig sabihin mas malala pa ito kaysa sa ating projections,” he said.

(This means that the increase is higher than expected. The reproduction number is nearly at 2, almost 2… this means that this is worse than our projections.)

He also denied that they were being alarmists.

“Tsaka ‘yung mga nagsasabing fear-mongering, conservative pa nga ‘yung projections sa lagay na iyon, eh,” he said.

(To anyone accusing us of fear-mongering, our projections are still conservative.)

David said the increase in cases may be connected to COVID-19 variants.

“Kasi yung dati namang virus na kumakalat dito, hindi siya ganito kabilis kumalat, hindi ganito kalakas, hindi ganito kapunit,” he said.

(Because the previous virus that was spreading earlier, it was not as transmissible, not as strong, not as cutting.) — DVM, GMA News

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