OCTA Research recommends one-week extension of ECQ in NCR Plus

The OCTA Research team on Saturday recommended a one-week extension of the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) imposed in the NCR Plus bubble amid the continuing rise in the number of COVID-19 cases.

"This one week ECQ is certainly not enough. We are definitely not yet out of the woods, and we need an additional week and maybe more," said OCTA Research fellow Ranjit Rye at a briefing.

"Our position has been clear before and it continues to be clear today, that based on the data we have, we're not yet out of the woods. We need an additional one week of ECQ at the very least and make a serious assessment after that," he added.

Dr. Guido David, another OCTA Research fellow, said they are projecting about the virus reproduction number to be at 1.5 this Easter Sunday, which might be reduced to 1.2 up to 1 if the ECQ is extended for another week.

Relaxing the restrictions after Easter Sunday otherwise will lead to a continued increase in the number of COVID-19 cases of possibly up to 12,000 to 13,000 daily, according to David.

"It is extremely catastrophic for us to open up prematurely with hospitals at critical levels right now," said Rye, adding that both lives and livelihoods will be at stake and the gains achieved during the NCR Plus bubble will be lost.

"The conviction of OCTA has always been that if we are able to manage and mitigate transmissions, that is the only time we can truly jumpstart the economy. If we cannot deal with the surge, we cannot open the economy up," Rye added.

From March 26 to April 2, the reproduction number in the National Capital Region was at 1.65, which is lower than the 1.96 from the previous weeks. David attributed the decrease to the ECQ.

David said the effects of the COVID-19 variants were taken into consideration in their projections, as some parts of NCR had as high as 2.25 up to 2.5 reproduction rate, especially in Pasay City.

He said OCTA Research has observed that the South Africa variant is more infectious than the UK variant, with the reproduction number in Cebu reaching only as high as 1.8 or less than 2 due to the UK variant. NCR meanwhile had a higher level of reproduction number with the South African variant also spreading in the region.

The NCR, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, and Rizal — designated as the NCR Plus — were placed under ECQ starting midnight of March 29 until Sunday, April 4, to limit the public's movement and help prevent the further transmission of the coronavirus.

The Department of Health earlier recommended a one-week extension of the ECQ reimposed over NCR Plus.

“Extension for another week was recommended but nothing is final and IATF works in a whole of government approach. There will be an assessment of the progress before ECQ ends,” DOH Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire told GMA News in a text message on Tuesday.

President Rodrigo Duterte will announce on Saturday the quarantine protocol for NCR Plus starting April 5, presidential spokesperson Harry Roque said.

Nationwide, the Philippines has tallied 771,497 cases of COVID-19 as of Friday.

Of this number, 153,809 are active, this year's highest.

Recoveries totalled 604,368 while the death toll climbed to 13,320. —KG, GMA News