Downward trend in COVID-19 cases seen with NCR under MECQ —OCTA expert

An expert from OCTA Research on Monday said he is expecting a downward trend of COVID-19 cases with the implementation of modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) in the National Capital Region (NCR) until April 30.

Interviewed on Unang Hirit, Dr. Guido David said the downward trend in the number of COVID-19 infections may happen in a week or two.

'"Yan yung inaasahan natin na dire-diretsong pagbaba. By next week baka nasa downward trend na tayo hopefully, or next next week,” David said.

[We are expecting a continuous decrease in COVID-19 cases. By next week or the week after that, we may achieve a downward trend hopefully.]

He added that from 10,000 average cases per day, the number may go down to 7,000.

Currently, David said the reproduction number of cases is at 1.24. A reproduction number below 1 means the reproduction of COVID-19 cases is on a downward trend, he added. 

On Sunday, presidential spokesperson Harry Roque announced that NCR, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, and Rizal -- collectively known as NCR Plus -- will be placed under MECQ from April 12 until April 30

Due to the rising COVID-19 cases, the government placed NCR Plus under stricter community quarantine classification with a new set of regulations such as in restriction in mobility, business operations, and gatherings.

Several health groups warned that the healthcare system was on the verge of collapsing due to the overwhelming number of COVID-19 patients being brought to hospitals.

Earlier, the OCTA Research recommended to the government to extend the ECQ in NCR Plus for another week or impose MECQ for two weeks to slow down the spread of COVID-19.

On Sunday, the Department of Health reported 11,681 new COVID-19 cases bringing the total cases to 864,868 and the total active cases to 146,519.

At least 201 more COVID-19 patients died, bringing the death toll to 14,945, according to the DOH. --KBK, GMA News