Philippine COVID cases daily average down by 11% —OCTA

The average number of new COVID-19 cases nationwide has declined by 11% in the past seven days, but this shouldn't be seen yet as the effect of modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ), OCTA Research said Sunday.

In an interview with GMA News Online, Dr. Guido David, member of the independent research group, also clarified that the sudden increase of new cases on Saturday (May 1), was not a surge of cases. 

"I would clarify that we would not see this as a surge, of course any increase in cases is concerning, if we look at the weekly average in the whole Philippines. The average over the past 7 days is 8,246 -- 11% lower than the previous average of 9,253," David said in a Zoom interview.

According to the Department of Health, the following are the daily new COVID-19 cases tallies from April 25 to May 1:

• April 25 - 8,162 new cases
• April 26 - 8,929 new cases
• April 27 - 7,204 new cases
• April 28 - 6,895 new cases
• April 29 - 8,275 new cases
• April 30 - 8,748 new cases
• May 01 - 9,226 new cases

David also noted a downtrend of new cases in Metro Manila, which currently has 0.83 reproduction rate. The reproduction rate determines the number of people that can be infected by the virus.

Metro Manila recorded an average number of 3,144 new COVID-19 cases in the past seven days which is 18 percent lower than the previous week of 3,337 average cases, David also noted.

David also said that "fluctuations" or sudden increase of COVID-19 cases would be caused  by late reporting or closure of testing centers.

Also, David said MECQ's effect on COVID-19 cases could be determined by next week.

"I would be slightly concerned as well but it would be premature to conclude anything right now. It is not the effect of MECQ flex. We could  expect it around next week," David said referring to Saturday's sudden spike in the number of cases.

Metro Manila and its nearby areas are under the more stringent quarantine until May 14. It has been more than a month since the government placed the area under stricter restrictions. 

OCTA Research Group had recommended an extension of two weeks for the MECQ for the NCR Plus bubble. David said this would also help the government to recalibrate the capacity of establishments' operations once the number of cases decline.

Monitor LGUs outside NCR plus 

Meanwhile, David said areas such as Bacolod and Zamboanga should be monitored closely as the increase of COVID-19 cases there are "slightly concerning."

In Zamboanga, he said there are 110 new cases daily while in Bacolod there is an average of 67 new cases daily.

But Guido said these numbers are "not out of control yet" as he advised local government units to be prepared. 

"Local governments should definitely put their process in place for pandemic management so that testing, hospitalization should be readied," David added. —LBG, GMA News