NCR must get 90% of vaccines, inoculate 200K daily —OCTA

Metro Manila must get 90% of COVID-19 vaccines and administer 200,000 doses daily to achieve herd immunity by Christmas this year and contain virus transmission nationwide, the OCTA Research group said Wednesday.

Likewise, the team of experts said the remaining 10% of vaccines would be enough to vaccinate health workers and senior citizens nationwide.

“We will still continue with the priority list but a geographic emphasis is going to be made,” Professor Ranjit Rye said at the Kapihan sa Manila Bay forum.

Molecular biologist Fr. Nicanor Austriaco said a model he developed with chemical engineering graduate student Allan Almajose found that prioritizing Metro Manila in the vaccine rollout is the “fastest way” to bring down COVID-19 cases nationwide.

Austriaco said Metro Manila can achieve herd containment by vaccinating 6.21 million people or 40% to 50% of its 13.8-million population using 12.42 million doses.

Herd immunity in the capital region, he added, can be reached by inoculating 9.66 million people or 70% to 80% of the population with 19.32 million doses.

For the government to meet its goal of a “better Christmas” this year, Austriaco said 200,000 doses must be administered daily in Metro Manila. 

Earlier, Vaccine czar Secretary Carlito Galvez Jr. said the vaccination program would prioritize areas of economic and social importance that have a significant number of COVID-19 cases. 

He also expressed optimism that Metro Manila and neighboring provinces would achieve herd immunity by November. 

OCTA said the public should look at the prioritization of Metro Manila in the inoculation campaign as a “whole country strategy.”

“If we solve the problem of NCR, we’re solving the problem of [the] provinces, we’re solving the problem for the rest of the country,” Rye said.

The Department of Health earlier reported an upward trend in COVID-19 cases in 10 regions, mostly in Visayas and Mindanao, but said the healthcare systems of these areas can still cope. 

“Some of them are having an increase but the caseloads are not really significant. Right now, we’re only seeing a few LGUs with a significant number of cases… So it’s not really as alarming as it sounds,” Dr. Guido David said.

“We do know that the NCR is ‘the head of the snake.’ It’s also the economic capital and it’s also the primary ports of the country. If NCR is protected, things that go through a protected region will essentially be protected,” he added. —LBG, GMA News