OCTA: NCR's COVID-19 cases now 80% lower than during peak of surge

The average number of COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region has fallen by around 80% from the peak of the surge in infections during the previous months, the OCTA Research group said Wednesday.

Professor Guido David said the capital region averaged 1,099 new COVID-19 cases daily over the past week.

“That is about 80% lower than the average during the peak of the surge. The single-day peak was 8,000 but the daily average peak was 5,550, so this is a significant improvement,” he said in an online forum.

David also said NCR's reproduction number, which refers to the number of people that each COVID-19 case can infect, has decreased to 0.53 while its positivity rate has gone down to 10% from a high of 25% in April. 

“Obviously, we want to sustain this. Then again, we should remind everyone that even though we have made significant improvements, the NCR will always be at risk of another surge… that’s why the focus right now is on vaccinations,” he said.

The surge in cases prompted the national government to put NCR, as well as the adjacent provinces of Laguna, Cavite, Rizal and Bulacan, under the strictest enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in late March.

The classification was later on downgraded to modified ECQ, then to the current general community quarantine (GCQ) "with heightened restrictions."

David said the GCQ over Metro Manila and neighboring provinces should be “retained” in June.

Cases by city

David also reported that Quezon City, Zamboanga, Manila, Pasig, and Davao City registered the highest number of new COVID-19 cases over the past week.

Despite this, most cities posted a negative case growth rate, except for Davao City whose infections grew by 49%.

Quezon City and Zamboanga also logged high hospital occupancy rates of 62% and 70%, respectively.

The Philippines has 1,188,672 COVID-19 cases with 1,120,452 recoveries and 20,019 deaths as of Tuesday afternoon. —KBK, GMA News