DOH: Metro Manila at low risk for COVID-19; four regions at high risk

Metro Manila is now at low risk for COVID-19 as infections continue to go down in the capital region, the Department of Health (DOH) said Wednesday, while it flagged four regions showing case increases and high bed occupancy rates.

DOH Epidemiology Bureau director Dr. Alethea De Guzman said Metro Manila is “exhibiting a slow decline after a plateau.” 

The capital region averaged 685 new cases daily from June 16 to 22, lower than its average of 825 daily new cases over June 9 to 15.

“The goal now is to push it down even further so that we reach our pre-ECQ (enhanced community quarantine) levels of less than 500 [cases],” De Guzman said in an online forum.

Metro Manila logged an average daily attack rate (ADAR) of 5.70 cases per 100,000 population, hospital occupancy rate of 36.29%, and intensive care unit (ICU) utilization rate of 45.83%.

While all cities in the capital region posted negative two-week case growth rates, Pateros, Makati, San Juan, Pasig, Pasay, and Las Piñas were classified as moderate risk due to their high ADAR or bed occupancy rate.

Makati posted a 61.90% healthcare utilization rate and 89.66% ICU occupancy rate, while 70% of ICU beds in Las Piñas were in use as of June 21.

Last week, De Guzman said Metro Manila was classified as moderate risk. 

Four regions flagged

Meanwhile, the DOH flagged Caraga and Regions 6, 11, and 12 as high risk areas for COVID-19.

The ADAR reached 9.95 cases per 100,000 population in Caraga, 8.83 in Region 6, 8.16 in Region 11, and 7.01 in Region 12.

All four regions also logged positive two-week case growth rates, while Region 11’s ICU occupancy rate was in the critical risk category at 86.73%. 

Other areas where the healthcare or ICU utilization rates have breached the high to critical risk classification were Zambales, Tarlac, Pampanga, Misamis Occidental, Oriental Mindoro, and Benguet.

Nationally, the COVID-19 case case trend is “showing signs of decline,” according to De Guzman.

She stressed, however, that local authorities must be prepared to cope with a sudden spike in infections by converting hospital beds to COVID-19 beds.

The Philippines averaged 5,790 new cases daily from June 16 to 22, lower than its average of 6,678 daily new infections during June 9 to 15.

The country has tallied 1,367,894 infections as of Tuesday afternoon, 522,024 of which are in Metro Manila.

The Philippines can achieve population protection from COVID-19 before Christmas this year if daily vaccination rate is ramped up to 350,000, the OCTA Research group said Wednesday.

In a report, the independent team of experts said doubling the country’s current average of 195,400 inoculations daily “will project to more than 60 million jabs by November 15, enough to achieve Philippine population protection before Christmas.” —KG, GMA News