OCTA: NCR’s COVID-19 reproduction number up to 1.08

The OCTA Research group on Wednesday said the COVID-19 reproduction number of Metro Manila increased to 1.08, indicating sustained transmission as the country braces for the Delta variant.

In their latest monitoring report, the independent team of experts said Metro Manila averaged 744 new cases daily from July 14 to 20, higher than the average of 629 daily new infections during July 7 to 13.

The capital region also logged an average daily attack rate (ADAR) of 5.39 cases per 100,000 population, ICU utilization of 42%, and positivity rate of 6%.

OCTA earlier said that while the uptick in infections in Metro Manila was a cause for concern, it was not yet a cause for alarm “as it is still too early to determine if this will continue to [be] an increasing trend.” 

The Philippines currently has eight active cases of the highly contagious Delta variant, six of whom are local infections. 

Malacañang said some restrictions will likely be reimposed as the threat of the Delta variant looms. 

"Napatunayan na sa pamamagitan ng siyensya na itong Delta variant ay mas nakakahawa, mas nakakamatay, kaya sabi ni presidente ay baka [maghigpit ulit] at ngayon po ay mukhang sigurado na na magbabalik po tayo ng ilang paghihigpit," he told Unang Balita earlier in the day.

(It is scientifically proven that the Delta variant is more contagious and that's why the president said we may have to restore some restrictions and that seems like a sure thing already.)

Roque said the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases, or IATF, will meet on Thursday to discuss, among others, the recommendation of experts to suspend the policy allowing children aged 5 to 17 to go outside their homes.

High risk areas

Meanwhile, areas flagged as high risk by OCTA due to high ADAR, ICU utilization, or positivity rates were Davao City, Cebu City, Iloilo City, Bacolod, Makati, Cagayan de Oro, General Santos, Baguio, Taguig, Laoag, and Mariveles.

Davao City continued to log the highest average number of new cases with 218 fresh infections per day during July 14 to 20. Its ICU utilization rate was also tagged as “very high” at 91%.

The ICU utilization rate was also high in Iloilo City at 99% and in Taguig at 92%.

High-risk areas that registered a “very high” positivity were Bacolod, Cagayan de Oro, General Santos, Baguio, and Laoag.

Nationally, the reproduction number stood at 0.98 while the ICU utilization rate was 54% and positivity rate was 11%. — RSJ/KBK, GMA News