NCR's COVID-19 reproduction number up to 1.38 —OCTA

The reproduction number of coronavirus in Metro Manila has increased to 1.38, indicating a sustained transmission of the virus that causes COVID-19, the OCTA Research group said Friday.

In their latest monitoring report, the independent team of experts said the capital region averaged 1,096 new cases daily during July 23 to 29, a 28% increase from its average of 854 daily new infections during July 16 to 22.

Reproduction number refers to the number of people that one COVID-19 case can infect

Metro Manila also posted an average daily attack rate (ADAR) of 7.85 cases per 100,000 population, healthcare utilization rate of 41%, ICU occupancy rate of 50%, and positivity rate of 9%.

The government has tightened quarantine restrictions in Metro Manila to curb the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant.

Metro Manila will be under general community quarantine with heightened and additional restrictions from July 30 to August 5, and under the strictest restriction category enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) from August 6 to 20. 

OCTA welcomed the government’s decision. The group earlier called for a two-week “circuit breaker” lockdown due to the threat of the Delta variant. 

“We are faced with a significant challenge of reversing a surge in COVID-19 cases in the NCR. What makes this surge daunting is that the more contagious Delta variant may drive it,” the group said.

“It will be crucial for the LGUs, the communities, and the private sector in the NCR to work together to implement strategies to prevent this surge in cases from accelerating further,” it added.

OCTA called on the public to strictly follow health protocols against COVID-19 and avoid nonessential travel and social gatherings.

“We believe that what citizens will do in the next few days will be more important than any government intervention to address the surge in cases now happening in the NCR,” it added.

Other areas

Meanwhile, OCTA also flagged Cagayan de Oro as a critical-risk area for COVID-19 after it logged a reproduction number of 1.53, ADAR of 20.11 cases per 100,000 population, healthcare utilization rate of 81%, ICU occupancy rate of 83%, and positivity rate of 25%.

Areas tagged as high-risk include:

• Quezon City
• Cebu City
• Davao City
• Makati City
• Lapu-Lapu City
• Iloilo City
• General Santos City
• Laoag City
• Caloocan City
•  Mandaue City 
• Mariveles, Bataan
• Las Piñas City
• Valenzuela City
• Bacoor City
• Malabon City 
• Santa Rosa, Laguna

OCTA also noted a “very high one-week growth rate” in the cities of Malabon, San Juan, and Navotas. —LBG, GMA News