Active COVID-19 cases in NCR could hit 60K by mid-September —OCTA

Active COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) could reach 60,000 by the middle of September, the OCTA Research group said Monday.

“We should be hitting a peak of about 60,000 active cases and it will happen around the middle of September. And even with a slower decrease we would not be exceeding 70,000 cases,” OCTA fellow Guido David said in an online Go Negosyo forum. 

“But if we reach 100,000 cases that will be close to catastrophic.”

As of August 22, the number of active COVID-19 cases in the NCR is at 36,054.

Earlier, the independent monitoring group said the reproduction number in the NCR, which was placed under an enhanced community quarantine from August 6 to 20, decreased to 1.67 from 1.90.

OCTA explained that the current rate of decrease in reproduction number, which refers to the number of people that each COVID-19 case can infect, was slower this August compared to the previous surge in April possibly due to the highly infectious Delta variant of the coronavirus.

The Department of Health (DOH) on Monday said there were already signs of community transmission of the highly contagious Delta coronavirus variant in Metro Manila and Calabarzon but stressed the need for “further evidence.”

Citing the World Health Organization, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said in a briefing that community transmission means there is a clustering of cases and there are no longer links among infected individuals.

OCTA further said the increased mobility reported by the DOH during the recent ECQ might have contributed to the slower rate of decrease in reproduction number.

“We will be on a downward trend around the first week of September. This may be delayed and we could see the downward trend around the second week of September. But if we follow these projections we are going to be seeing below 3,000 cases before the end of September,” David said.

The NCR is currently under modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ), where indoor and al fresco dining are prohibited and businesses are allowed to function but only with limited capacity.

The MECQ will be in effect until August 31 unless further extended by the government. —KBK/KG, GMA News