NCR reproduction number rose to 1.41 but overall trend of cases decreasing —OCTA

The reproduction number of the coronavirus in Metro Manila increased from 1.39 to 1.41 but the overall trend of COVID-19 cases is decreasing, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said Sunday. 

As new COVID-19 cases still increase, David said they are hoping the reproduction number decreases during the third week of September to further slow down the transmission of the disease.

"Sa buong Pilipinas, nasa 1.32. Sa buong NCR, 1.41 'yung reproduction number natin. Overall, ang trend niya bumababa," said David on Dobol B TV when asked about the situation of COVID-19 in the country.

(For the whole Philippines, it is 1.32. For the whole NCR, the reproduction number is at 1.41. Overall, the trend is decreasing.)

Reproduction number refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual.

David further pointed out that the reproduction number should decrease further to 1.00 or 1.1 to make sure that COVID-19 cases will go down.

The current 1.41 reproduction means two infected people may transmit the disease to three people, the OCTA Research fellow said.

He also said Metro Manila reported a record-high of more than 6,000 cases on Saturday. He also warned that this figure may increase in the next few weeks.

PHL yet to achieve peak of cases

Even with an all time-high 22,366 new cases reported in late August, the Philippines has yet to report the peak of COVID-19 cases.

David said this as the country has yet to mitigate the transmission of the virus amid the highly contagious Delta variant.

"'Yung 22,000 na nakita natin, 'di pa peak 'yun. Baka malampasan natin 'yun. Baka puwedeng mangyari ngayong araw o bukas or these coming weeks," the biomedical engineer said.

(The 22,000 cases is not yet the peak. We can surpass that probably today, tomorrow or the coming week.)

David had warned that fresh COVID-19 infections could move past the 25,000th mark but it would not likely reach 30,000. 

The Philippines on Saturday reported 20,741 new COVID-19 cases, marking the second consecutive day where more than 20,000 cases were recorded.

According to the Department of Health, this brought the nationwide tally to 2,061,084 while active cases slightly decreased to 157,646.

The DOH also announced that total recoveries climbed to 1,869,376 after 21,962 more patients recovered from the illness, the highest since April 24.

Meanwhile, 189 new fatalities brought the death toll to 34,062. —KG, GMA News