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NCR's COVID-19 reproduction number down to 0.99 —OCTA


The National Capital Region's COVID-19 reproduction number continues to improve, according to Dr. Guido David of OCTA Research on Thursday.

Interviewed on Dobol B TV, David said the NCR's reproduction number decreased to 0.99 from the 1.03 mentioned in the previous report.

"Huling nag-less than one yan nung July pa, nung bago nagka-surge [The last time we had a reproduction number less than 1 was in July before the surge] ," he said.

"Sana tuloy-tuloy na ang recovery natin  [I hope our recovery continues]."

Reproduction number refers to the number of people that each case can infect.

Decrease in the reproduction number was also seen in other areas, including Cavite (0.87), Laguna (0.90), Bulacan (0.86), Cebu City (0.66) and Davao City (1), David said.

However, a rise in COVID-19 cases was seen in Region 2.

David also said based on projections, hospital situation in the NCR is likely to improve early to middle of October.

In a separate interview on Laging Handa later in the day, David said NCR's seven-day average was at 4,674 new cases, 20% lower than last week's 5,800.

"Sa Metro Manila, ang inaasahan natin, baka by the end of month nasa 4,000 na lang 'yung daily average natin. By October baka nasa 2,000 to 3,000 na lang 'yung daily average natin. 'Yan ang mga inaasahan natin," he said.

(In Metro Manila, we expect that by the end of the month, our daily average will be at 4,000. By October, our daily average may be at 2,000 to 3,000. Those are our expectations.)

David said the decline in COVID-19 cases started when NCR was placed under modified enhanced community quarantine, but improvements were also seen due to the implementation of granular lockdowns.

The Department of Health (DOH) on Wednesday reported 15,592 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the nationwide tally to 2,417,419.

At a forum on Tuesday, David said the Philippines could possibly be in the last stages of its battle against the Delta coronavirus variant, especially in Metro Manila, amid the decrease in the reproduction number.

At Laging Handa, David clarified that he only meant that the country is starting to recover from the highly infectious variant. He maintained that the country's COVID-19 cases are still high.

'Not yet out of the woods'

At a meeting with President Rodrigo Duterte on Wednesday night, National Task Force Deputy Chief Implementer and "testing czar" Vince Dizon said the country is "not yet out of the woods from the Delta [coronavirus] variant."

"Even if there seems to be a slight decline in cases, these are still very high and our hospitals are still overburdened," he said.

Dizon said big hospitals closing their COVID-19 wards is the government's "biggest challenge" in addressing the pandemic.  —with Jamil Santos/KBK, GMA News

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