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NCR's COVID-19 reproduction number down to 0.97 —OCTA

The National Capital Region's (NCR) COVID-19 reproduction number slid further on Friday, according to Dr. Guido David of OCTA Research.

In a tweet, David said NCR's COVID-19 reproduction number went down to 0.97 from the 0.99 reported the previous day.

Reproduction number refers to the number of people that each case can infect.

David also said NCR growth rate is at -22% for a seven-day average of 4,480 cases, and that "[a]ll 17 LGUs (local government units) had negative 1-week growth rate."

The latest OCTA report covers the September 17 to 23 period.

Based on the report, 13 NCR LGUs had a reproduction number of less than 1, with Navotas having the lowest at 0.57.

Interviewed during Thursday's Laging Handa briefing, David said the decline in COVID-19 cases started when the NCR was placed under modified enhanced community quarantine, but improvements were also seen due to the implementation of granular lockdowns.

Still high risk

However, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said the NCR’s average daily attack rate remains at high risk at 38.04 cases per 100,000 population, the highest among all of the regions in the country.

“While we are seeing signs of decline in cases, it is important to keep in mind that our trend is also affected by factors such as our testing output and the detection activities such as active case finding and testing,” she said in an online briefing on Friday.

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Metro Manila is currently under Alert Level 4, the second highest in the new five-level alert system being pilot-tested by the government amid the pandemic.

Based on the new guidelines, areas under Alert Level 4 are those with COVID-19 case counts that are high or increasing while total beds and ICU beds are at high utilization rate.

Under Alert Level 4, outdoor or al fresco dining will be allowed at maximum of 30% venue/seating capacity regardless of vaccination status of customers. Indoor dine-in services may be allowed at a limited 10% venue/seating capacity but will cater only to individuals fully vaccinated against COVID-19.

There are also restrictions on personal care services, religious gatherings, and attendance at wakes and burials, among others. Curfew is also shorter at 10 p.m. to 4 a.m. 

On Thursday, the Philippines reported 17,411 new COVID-19 infections, raising the number of active cases in the country to 165,790.

The Department of Health said the new cases brought the country's total COVID-19 caseload to 2,434,753.

Of the 165,790 active cases, 92.1% are mild, 3.1% are asymptomatic, 1,5% are severe, and 0.7% are in critical condition.

Total recoveries, meanwhile, increased to 2,231,558 after 14,090 more patients defeated the respiratory illness.

The death toll rose to 37,405 with 177 new fatalities.   — with Virgil Lopez/KBK/RSJ, GMA News