NCR COVID-19 reproduction number down to 0.67 —OCTA

The number of new COVID-19 cases per day in the National Capital Region (NCR) could go below 1,000 by the end of October, OCTA Research said Thursday, adding the reproduction number has further decreased to 0.67.

Reproduction number, or the number of people that one COVID-19 case can infect, was at 0.88 the week before, OCTA said. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

“Based on current trends, the NCR could have 1,500 to below 1,000 new cases per day by end of October,” OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said in a tweet.

According to David, the seven-day average in NCR had a 32% decline to 2,642. The positivity rate also decreased to 14%.

On Monday, Guido announced that NCR is at moderate risk for COVID-19.

NCR will remain under Alert Level 4 from October 1 to 15 as the government extended the pilot implementation of the new five-level alert system.

The Department of Health (DOH) on Wednesday reported 9,868 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the nationwide tally to 2,622,917.

This marks the second straight day where less than 10,000 cases were recorded as the DOH cites technical issues with COVIDKaya.

“The DOH is in constant coordination with the DICT to resolve technical issues with COVIDKaya,” the DOH said.

Meanwhile, this brought the country’s active cases to 112,807.

Of this, 76.7% are mild, 13.9% are asymptomatic, 2.8% are severe, and 1.2% are in critical condition.  —KBK, GMA News